who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
this off season ?

On Sep 30, 1:36 pm, spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> this off season ?


Full list of potential free agents.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html


Current Reds contracts (plus service time and other obligations)
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html

spr272000@netzero.net wrote:
> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> this off season ?

The reds have a ton of free agents.
Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.

The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.

In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
instead of paying them.
Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
Jolbert Cabrera.

I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
around to see what he can do as a relief arm.

Where does that leave the club.

Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
need a catcher.

First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
cover till Yonder is ready.

It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.

I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.

Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
do that with Phillips on the roster.

Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.

That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.

Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.

Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar contracts.

The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
cash to chase free agents with.

By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
shopping and fill thee holes.

So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
what Bowden used to do.

You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.

dfs

On Sep 30, 3:27 pm, David Short
<David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> > who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> > this off season ?
>
> The reds have a ton of free agents.
> Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
> Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
> The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
> and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
> In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
> with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
> instead of paying them.
> Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
> Jolbert Cabrera.
>
> I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
> them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
> around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
> Where does that leave the club.
>
> Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
> anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
> need a catcher.
>
> First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
> move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
> cover till Yonder is ready.
>
> It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
> Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>
> I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
> you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
> Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
> certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
> shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
> There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
> either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
> would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
> do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
> Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
> the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>
> That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
> depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
> Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
> Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
> even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
> Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
> they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
> or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
> like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar contracts.
>
> The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
> Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
> cash to chase free agents with.
>
> By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
> Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
> million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
> him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
> have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
> a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
> or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
> shopping and fill thee holes.
>
> So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
> give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
> pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
> what Bowden used to do.
>
> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> dfs

It's funny how raises are so frequently disregarded when talking about
free agent dollars. I was reading a thread on a Reds forum a few days
ago with some guy going on about the extra $22 million the Reds have
now with Dunn and Griffey gone. If only...

Anyway, I think the priority is a high OBP outfielder who can field
his position. Ideally he's a CF, but I'm not picky as options are
limited. Only two 2009 free agent outfielders are under age 30; two
of them are Dunn and Corey Patterson, and the third is perpetually
disabled Rocco Baldelli. I'd rather the Reds trade some of their
pitching depth (I can't believe I just typed that) to a team with
quality outfield surplus and see what options unfold there.
Cincinnati goes into 2009 with four rotation spots set, and a ton of
arms - maybe Homer Bailey's time is up?

The other outfield spot will likely be spare parts, and catcher is
probably best solved with one of the LaRussa types who can call a good
game and defend well enough to overlook his bat.

"tom dunne" <dunnetg@gmail.com> wrote in message
> On Sep 30, 3:27 pm, David Short
>> By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
>> Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
>> million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
>> him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
>> have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
>> a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
>> or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
>> shopping and fill thee holes.
>>
>> So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
>> give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
>> pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
>> what Bowden used to do.
>>
>> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> It's funny how raises are so frequently disregarded when talking about
> free agent dollars. I was reading a thread on a Reds forum a few days
> ago with some guy going on about the extra $22 million the Reds have
> now with Dunn and Griffey gone. If only...

Yeah.

> Anyway, I think the priority is a high OBP outfielder who can field
> his position. Ideally he's a CF, but I'm not picky as options are
> limited. Only two 2009 free agent outfielders are under age 30; two
> of them are Dunn and Corey Patterson, and the third is perpetually
> disabled Rocco Baldelli. I'd rather the Reds trade some of their
> pitching depth (I can't believe I just typed that) to a team with
> quality outfield surplus and see what options unfold there.
> Cincinnati goes into 2009 with four rotation spots set, and a ton of
> arms - maybe Homer Bailey's time is up?

I could see Bailey leaving. Last off season I said the reds should listen to
offers for everybody on the roster and make the best deal. This off season,
I feel pretty comfortable saying that Bruce, Votto and Voltron will be back.
I can see situations where you might trade everybody else on the roster.

> The other outfield spot will likely be spare parts, and catcher is
> probably best solved with one of the LaRussa types who can call a good
> game and defend well enough to overlook his bat.

I read that as a LaRue type and thought, them's fighten words.
I expect Bako or somebody like that to be on the roster.

dfs

On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>spr272000@netzero.net wrote:
>> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
>> this off season ?
>
>The reds have a ton of free agents.
>Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
>Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
>The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
>and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
>In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
>with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
>instead of paying them.
>Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
>Jolbert Cabrera.
>
>I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
>them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
>around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
>Where does that leave the club.
>
>Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
>anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
>need a catcher.
>
>First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
>move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
>cover till Yonder is ready.
>
>It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
>Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>
>I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
>you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
>Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
>certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
>shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
>There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
>either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
>would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
>do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
>Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
>the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>
>That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
>depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
>Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
>Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
>even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
>Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
>they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
>or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
>like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar contracts.
>
>The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
>Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
>cash to chase free agents with.
>
>By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
>Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
>million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
>him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
>have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
>a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
>or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
>shopping and fill thee holes.
>
>So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
>give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
>pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
>what Bowden used to do.
>
>You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.

The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
nucleus consistently score enough runs?


***************************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Few (people) are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the
censure of their colleagues, the wrath of society. Moral courage is a
rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is
the one essential, vital, quality for those who seek to change a world
which yields most painfully to change." ~Robert F. Kennedy
***************************************************************************

On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:44:30 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne
<dunnetg@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>The other outfield spot will likely be spare parts, and catcher is
>probably best solved with one of the LaRussa types who can call a good
>game and defend well enough to overlook his bat.

I don't know much about Hanigan. Is his rep as a defensive or good
hiting C? Both? Neither?


***************************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Few (people) are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the
censure of their colleagues, the wrath of society. Moral courage is a
rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is
the one essential, vital, quality for those who seek to change a world
which yields most painfully to change." ~Robert F. Kennedy
***************************************************************************

On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
wrote:
> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>
>
>
> <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> >> this off season ?
>
> >The reds have a ton of free agents.
> >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
> >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
> >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
> >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
> >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
> >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
> >instead of paying them.
> >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
> >Jolbert Cabrera.
>
> >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
> >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
> >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
> >Where does that leave the club.
>
> >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
> >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
> >need a catcher.
>
> >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
> >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
> >cover till Yonder is ready.
>
> >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
> >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>
> >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
> >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
> >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
> >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
> >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
> >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
> >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
> >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
> >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
> >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
> >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>
> >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
> >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
> >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
> >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
> >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
> >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
> >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
> >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
> >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar contracts.
>
> >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
> >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
> >cash to chase free agents with.
>
> >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
> >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
> >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
> >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
> >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
> >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
> >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
> >shopping and fill thee holes.
>
> >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
> >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
> >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
> >what Bowden used to do.
>
> >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
> >million.  Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
> >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
> nucleus consistently score enough runs?

I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
think they'll keep growing. If Phillips bounces back, they probably
do alright. On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
out, that certainly couldn't hurt.

Kevin McClave wrote:
> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
> nucleus consistently score enough runs?

Do you remember the old magic 8 ball?

"It's too soon to tell" would be the appropriate answer here.

We don't know what they're gonna do at catcher.
We don't know that Phillips will be back.
We don't know that they will keep Edwin.
I don't know who is gonna play at shortstop.
I don't know who is gonna play in center or in left.

I said Bruce, Votto and Voltron were safe...with Yonder in AA I can see
them deciding to trade Votto instead of moving him to left.

I follow the reds as much as anybody I know, I gave you my best guess
about what the reds would do this off season and I don't have a clue
about how well the offense will perform simply because I don't have
enough information.

I agree that scoring runs is something the front office needs to be
concerned about.

dfs

On Wed, 1 Oct 2008 07:51:08 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
>wrote:
>> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>>
>>
>>
>> <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>> >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
>> >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
>> >> this off season ?
>>
>> >The reds have a ton of free agents.
>> >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
>> >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>>
>> >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
>> >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>>
>> >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
>> >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
>> >instead of paying them.
>> >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
>> >Jolbert Cabrera.
>>
>> >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
>> >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
>> >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>>
>> >Where does that leave the club.
>>
>> >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
>> >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
>> >need a catcher.
>>
>> >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
>> >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
>> >cover till Yonder is ready.
>>
>> >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
>> >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>>
>> >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
>> >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>>
>> >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
>> >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
>> >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
>> >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
>> >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
>> >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
>> >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>>
>> >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
>> >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>>
>> >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
>> >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>>
>> >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
>> >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
>> >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>>
>> >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
>> >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
>> >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
>> >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar contracts.
>>
>> >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
>> >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
>> >cash to chase free agents with.
>>
>> >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
>> >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
>> >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
>> >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
>> >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
>> >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
>> >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
>> >shopping and fill thee holes.
>>
>> >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
>> >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
>> >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
>> >what Bowden used to do.
>>
>> >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>> >million.  Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>> >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>>
>> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
>> nucleus consistently score enough runs?
>
>I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
>The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
>Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
>think they'll keep growing. If Phillips bounces back, they probably
>do alright. On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
>out, that certainly couldn't hurt.

Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
performance I would call "good," though.

Even if Phillips does bounce back, he was overrated offensively to begin
with.

I just see too many guys who either "hit well for a <fill in
traditionally weaker hitting position here>" or don't hit well period.
It isn't like we have mashers at a few positions, where we can carry a
slick fielder at, say, CF, or like in days past when our best hitter was
at a traditionally weak hitting position (Larkin) and we had another
good hitter at another (Taubensee, or Griffey when he was occasionally
healthy and in CF, etc.). If Gonzalez and Hairston and Bako (just to
grab some names as an example) wind up in the lineup on any sort of
regular basis, this team will struggle to score. Unless The four guys
you mentioned *really* all break out, or at least three do, it's going
to be a sometimes anemic, mediocre at best lineup.

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************

"David Short" <David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
news:gc05kr$kf5$1@posting.glorb.com...
> Kevin McClave wrote:
>> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>>> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>>> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>>> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>>
>> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
>> nucleus consistently score enough runs?
>
> Do you remember the old magic 8 ball?
>
> "It's too soon to tell" would be the appropriate answer here.
>
> We don't know what they're gonna do at catcher.
> We don't know that Phillips will be back.
> We don't know that they will keep Edwin.
> I don't know who is gonna play at shortstop.
> I don't know who is gonna play in center or in left.
>
> I said Bruce, Votto and Voltron were safe...with Yonder in AA I can see
> them deciding to trade Votto instead of moving him to left.
>
> I follow the reds as much as anybody I know, I gave you my best guess
> about what the reds would do this off season and I don't have a clue about
> how well the offense will perform simply because I don't have enough
> information.
>
> I agree that scoring runs is something the front office needs to be
> concerned about.

Here's my plan.

1) Sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B and lead off
2) Move Phillips, either to SS or to the Washinton Ex-Reds for Zimmerman.
3) Move Edwin to 1B
4) Move Votto to LF

Now you have a leadoff hitter, offense in LF and power on the corners and
Edwin no longer has to throw.

"tom dunne" <dunnetg@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:32ef1f67-8a9b-404d-b262-a1bac467af2e@2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
wrote:
> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>
>
>
> <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> >> this off season ?
>
> >The reds have a ton of free agents.
> >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
> >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
> >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
> >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
> >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
> >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
> >instead of paying them.
> >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
> >Jolbert Cabrera.
>
> >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
> >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
> >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
> >Where does that leave the club.
>
> >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
> >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
> >need a catcher.
>
> >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
> >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
> >cover till Yonder is ready.
>
> >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
> >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>
> >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
> >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
> >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
> >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
> >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
> >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
> >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
> >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
> >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
> >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
> >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>
> >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
> >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
> >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
> >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
> >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
> >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
> >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
> >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
> >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar
> >contracts.
>
> >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
> >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
> >cash to chase free agents with.
>
> >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
> >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
> >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
> >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
> >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
> >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
> >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
> >shopping and fill thee holes.
>
> >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
> >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
> >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
> >what Bowden used to do.
>
> >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
> >million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
> >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
> nucleus consistently score enough runs?

>I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
>The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
>Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
>think they'll keep growing. If Phillips bounces back, they probably
>do alright. On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
>out, that certainly couldn't hurt.

Let's say Phillips bounces back to .816 as in 2007 and Votto jumps to
..300/.390/.520 (reasonable based on this year). Bruce is still probably
going to be .800 at best. While he has power, his plate discipline is
pretty bad. He's fooled too often by breaking pitches. Those three alone
won't be enough to score enough runs. Are there real rumors around Holliday
and the Reds, or are they kinda like those Dusty Baker's daughter dating
Corey Patterson rumors?

"RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
> Are there real rumors around Holliday and the Reds, or are they kinda like
> those Dusty Baker's daughter dating Corey Patterson rumors?

Lots of radio and internet talk about Holliday coming to cincy.

dfs

On Oct 2, 12:08 am, "David Short"
<David.NO.Sh...@Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote:
> "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
> > Are there real rumors around Holliday and the Reds, or are they kinda like
> > those Dusty Baker's daughter dating Corey Patterson rumors?
>
> Lots of radio and internet talk about Holliday coming to cincy.

Yeah, I'm hearing that pretty regularly. His road splits suck, but
GABP plays like Coors enough that he might not notice. He's left
fielder, he's a right-handed bat, and his batting average is good
enough for the bleacher bums that can't comprehend OPS. On the
downside, he's in the last year of his deal and his agent is Scott
Boras, so you'd trade away starting pitching for a one-year rental.
I'd like to have him on the Reds, but for a team rebuilding, they
might as well wait until he's on the market in '10.

On Oct 1, 10:55 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
> "tom dunne" <dunn...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:32ef1f67-8a9b-404d-b262-a1bac467af2e@2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com...
> On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>
> > <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> > >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> > >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> > >> this off season ?
>
> > >The reds have a ton of free agents.
> > >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
> > >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
> > >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
> > >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
> > >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
> > >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
> > >instead of paying them.
> > >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
> > >Jolbert Cabrera.
>
> > >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
> > >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
> > >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
> > >Where does that leave the club.
>
> > >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
> > >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
> > >need a catcher.
>
> > >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
> > >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
> > >cover till Yonder is ready.
>
> > >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
> > >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>
> > >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
> > >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
> > >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
> > >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
> > >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
> > >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
> > >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
> > >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
> > >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
> > >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
> > >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>
> > >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
> > >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
> > >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
> > >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
> > >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
> > >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
> > >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
> > >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
> > >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar
> > >contracts.
>
> > >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
> > >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
> > >cash to chase free agents with.
>
> > >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
> > >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
> > >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
> > >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
> > >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
> > >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
> > >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
> > >shopping and fill thee holes.
>
> > >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
> > >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
> > >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
> > >what Bowden used to do.
>
> > >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
> > >million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
> > >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> > The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
> > nucleus consistently score enough runs?
> >I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
> >The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
> >Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
> >think they'll keep growing.  If Phillips bounces back, they probably
> >do alright.  On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
> >out, that certainly couldn't hurt.
>
> Let's say Phillips bounces back to .816 as in 2007 and Votto jumps to
> .300/.390/.520 (reasonable based on this year).  Bruce is still probably
> going to be .800 at best.  While he has power, his plate discipline is
> pretty bad.  He's fooled too often by breaking pitches.  Those three alone
> won't be enough to score enough runs.  Are there real rumors around Holliday
> and the Reds, or are they kinda like those Dusty Baker's daughter dating
> Corey Patterson rumors?

Between Phillips, Votto, Bruce and Encarnacion, I think the Reds have
four guys that will be in the .800-.850 range. That's not too shabby,
but that OPS is slugging heavy - it won't be particularly consistent.
More than a leadoff hitter, the Reds need one really good right-hander
batting third or fourth. Put someone like Holliday or David Wright in
the three spot, bookend him with Bruce/Votto and followed up with EE
and Phillips. That ought to score some runs (though I'd prefer BP
show enough patience that he could bat second instead.)

Anyway, as currently configured, this offense is hurting for runs.
Makes you wish they had an outfielder who averages 40 homers, 100 RBI
and a .900 OPS every single year, doesn't it? Oh, wait...

On Wed, 1 Oct 2008 22:18:51 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Oct 1, 10:55 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
>> "tom dunne" <dunn...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>>
>> news:32ef1f67-8a9b-404d-b262-a1bac467af2e@2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com...
>> On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>>
>> > <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>> > >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
>> > >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
>> > >> this off season ?
>>
>> > >The reds have a ton of free agents.
>> > >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
>> > >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>>
>> > >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back Lincoln
>> > >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>>
>> > >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
>> > >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
>> > >instead of paying them.
>> > >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
>> > >Jolbert Cabrera.
>>
>> > >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could see
>> > >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
>> > >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>>
>> > >Where does that leave the club.
>>
>> > >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
>> > >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
>> > >need a catcher.
>>
>> > >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
>> > >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
>> > >cover till Yonder is ready.
>>
>> > >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
>> > >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those guys.
>>
>> > >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
>> > >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>>
>> > >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
>> > >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
>> > >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
>> > >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
>> > >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
>> > >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
>> > >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>>
>> > >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds out
>> > >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07 season.
>>
>> > >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
>> > >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>>
>> > >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
>> > >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
>> > >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>>
>> > >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and if
>> > >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an arm
>> > >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
>> > >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar
>> > >contracts.
>>
>> > >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
>> > >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton of
>> > >cash to chase free agents with.
>>
>> > >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
>> > >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
>> > >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and sign
>> > >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
>> > >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two million
>> > >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
>> > >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
>> > >shopping and fill thee holes.
>>
>> > >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
>> > >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
>> > >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
>> > >what Bowden used to do.
>>
>> > >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>> > >million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>> > >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>>
>> > The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
>> > nucleus consistently score enough runs?
>> >I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
>> >The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
>> >Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
>> >think they'll keep growing.  If Phillips bounces back, they probably
>> >do alright.  On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
>> >out, that certainly couldn't hurt.
>>
>> Let's say Phillips bounces back to .816 as in 2007 and Votto jumps to
>> .300/.390/.520 (reasonable based on this year).  Bruce is still probably
>> going to be .800 at best.  While he has power, his plate discipline is
>> pretty bad.  He's fooled too often by breaking pitches.  Those three alone
>> won't be enough to score enough runs.  Are there real rumors around Holliday
>> and the Reds, or are they kinda like those Dusty Baker's daughter dating
>> Corey Patterson rumors?
>
>Between Phillips, Votto, Bruce and Encarnacion, I think the Reds have
>four guys that will be in the .800-.850 range. That's not too shabby,
>but that OPS is slugging heavy - it won't be particularly consistent.
>More than a leadoff hitter, the Reds need one really good right-hander
>batting third or fourth. Put someone like Holliday or David Wright in
>the three spot, bookend him with Bruce/Votto and followed up with EE
>and Phillips. That ought to score some runs (though I'd prefer BP
>show enough patience that he could bat second instead.)
>
>Anyway, as currently configured, this offense is hurting for runs.
>Makes you wish they had an outfielder who averages 40 homers, 100 RBI
>and a .900 OPS every single year, doesn't it? Oh, wait...

Don't worry, Tom, we'll have the most talented DL in the league!

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************

"tom dunne" <dunnetg@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:c6084053-ba0b-4c42-9668-6fa848fa6b9d@p49g2000hsd.googlegroups.com...
On Oct 1, 10:55 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
> "tom dunne" <dunn...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:32ef1f67-8a9b-404d-b262-a1bac467af2e@2g2000hsn.googlegroups.com...
> On Oct 1, 6:23 am, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>
> > <David.no.Sh...@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
> > >spr272...@netzero.net wrote:
> > >> who are the reds free agents ? and do they have any money to spend
> > >> this off season ?
>
> > >The reds have a ton of free agents.
> > >Josh Fogg, David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Kent Merker,
> > >Paul Bako, Jose Valentin, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Cory Patterson.
>
> > >The press have speculated that the reds would try and bring back
> > >Lincoln
> > >and Hairston. Weathers and Affeldt will bring draft picks.
>
> > >In addition to free agents, several reds are arbitration eligible. Like
> > >with George Cantu last year, the reds could just let these guys walk
> > >instead of paying them.
> > >Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Edwin Encarnacion, Andy Phillips and
> > >Jolbert Cabrera.
>
> > >I would certainly expect them to offer arbitration to Edwin. I could
> > >see
> > >them letting the others walk, although I would probably keep Belisle
> > >around to see what he can do as a relief arm.
>
> > >Where does that leave the club.
>
> > >Ryan Hanigan is the only catcher remotely qualified and I don't think
> > >anybody believes he's gonna get the lion's share of playing time. They
> > >need a catcher.
>
> > >First Base and Right field seem set in stone. It's possible they could
> > >move Votto into the outfield if they got a different first baseman to
> > >cover till Yonder is ready.
>
> > >It seems they have second base and third base covered with Brandon and
> > >Edwin. Again, it would not shock me if they traded either of those
> > >guys.
>
> > >I don't know if Alex Gonzalez is going to play next year and neither do
> > >you. Hopefully Jocketty knows. He could be the shortstop.
>
> > >Between Freel/Keppinger and Hairston(if they bring him back) they
> > >certainly have the multiposition bench slot covered. Keppinger at
> > >shortstop is probably the best fit of those guys for a full time job.
> > >There is a perception that Hairston could cover center. I don't think
> > >either of those are real good ideas. If Phillips were on the roster, I
> > >would not mind going with a three headed second baseman, but you can't
> > >do that with Phillips on the roster.
>
> > >Chris Dickerson is the other outfielder they have. I think he rounds
> > >out
> > >the bench. He's just as proven as Norris Hopper was after the 07
> > >season.
>
> > >That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
> > >depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.
>
> > >Starting pitching ...Voltron, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owens, Baily,
> > >Thompson, Livingston, Maloney and Rameriz ....that's depth and perhaps
> > >even quality. They will likely deal some of that to fill holes.
>
> > >Relief pitching...Cordero, Burton, Bray, Masset, Roeneke, Herrera and
> > >if
> > >they bring them back Lincoln and Belisle. They could probably use an
> > >arm
> > >or two here, but the message of Mike Lincoln is that you can find guys
> > >like that without offering them multi-year multi-million dollar
> > >contracts.
>
> > >The good news is that payroll is supposed to swell to 80 million and
> > >Dunn and Junior should nominally be off the books. They'll have a ton
> > >of
> > >cash to chase free agents with.
>
> > >By my count the reds have about 56 million tied up in Cordero, Harang,
> > >Gonzalez, Arroyo, Phillips and Freel. Say Edwin and Belisle make 3
> > >million in arbitration and they do the right thing by Keppinger and
> > >sign
> > >him for a million instead of for the league minimum. That means they
> > >have 60 million tied up in 9 players. Bring back Hairston at two
> > >million
> > >a year and 16 more low leverage guys pushes the salary up to 70 million
> > >or so. That leaves them with 10 million dollars to go free agent
> > >shopping and fill thee holes.
>
> > >So...let's say they honestly believe Gonzo is going to play and they
> > >give the centerfield job to Freel/Hairston/Hopper/Dickerson. Lets
> > >pretend they find bullpen help by turning over couch cushions. That's
> > >what Bowden used to do.
>
> > >You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
> > >million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
> > >the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>
> > The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
> > nucleus consistently score enough runs?
> >I think it's too soon to tell, with a third of the order under age 26.
> >The ceiling on Encarnacion may be fast approaching, but Bruce and
> >Votto had very good rookie seasons and there's plenty of reason to
> >think they'll keep growing. If Phillips bounces back, they probably
> >do alright. On the other hand, if the rumors about Matt Holliday pan
> >out, that certainly couldn't hurt.
>
> Let's say Phillips bounces back to .816 as in 2007 and Votto jumps to
> .300/.390/.520 (reasonable based on this year). Bruce is still probably
> going to be .800 at best. While he has power, his plate discipline is
> pretty bad. He's fooled too often by breaking pitches. Those three alone
> won't be enough to score enough runs. Are there real rumors around
> Holliday
> and the Reds, or are they kinda like those Dusty Baker's daughter dating
> Corey Patterson rumors?

>Between Phillips, Votto, Bruce and Encarnacion, I think the Reds have
>four guys that will be in the .800-.850 range. That's not too shabby,
>but that OPS is slugging heavy - it won't be particularly consistent.
>More than a leadoff hitter, the Reds need one really good right-hander
>batting third or fourth. Put someone like Holliday or David Wright in
>the three spot, bookend him with Bruce/Votto and followed up with EE
>and Phillips. That ought to score some runs (though I'd prefer BP
>show enough patience that he could bat second instead.)

I don't expect much more from Phillips and Encarnacion. Their main problem
is that they can't touch right handed pitching and that means unfortunately,
on most nights they're pretty useless. I suppose it's possible that they're
altering their approach due to being in roles tha they shouldn't be in, but
I'm not sure. These two were the main culprits for the Reds hitting lefties
better than righties, so I'm not sure why I keep reading that we need
another right handed bat. The nice thing is that Holliday hits right
handers better than left handers despite being a right handed bat, at least
in 2008 so he'd be a good fit. You can rest assured that as long as Baker
is the manager, Phillips will bat in the top four, although he probably
belongs 6th. He's fast, end of story. I'd like to see anyone who can be
miscast like that traded. That means no re-signing Corey Patterson either.

>Anyway, as currently configured, this offense is hurting for runs.
>Makes you wish they had an outfielder who averages 40 homers, 100 RBI
>and a .900 OPS every single year, doesn't it? Oh, wait...

I maintain that Dunn is a roller coaster ride. Bad in April, June, and
August and red hot in May, July, and just ok in September. Someone like
Holliday would be much more welcome because you're getting a consistent
..900+ OPS at all points during the season. With the rest of the guys we
have, that's very important. However, the rumors regarding him are not
really rumors, they're just fans and local media saying that he'd be welcome
and that we should go after him. There has been nothing that indicates that
anything is in the works or has even been discussed.

"David Short" <David.NO.Short@Wright.SPAM.Edu.PLEASE> wrote in message
news:gc1heh$knj$1@posting.glorb.com...
> "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote in message
>> Are there real rumors around Holliday and the Reds, or are they kinda
>> like
>> those Dusty Baker's daughter dating Corey Patterson rumors?
>
> Lots of radio and internet talk about Holliday coming to cincy.

I wouldn't pay any attention to that until you hear something along the
lines of discussions. At the same time, I'm guessing they're not going to
want the Northern Kentucky trade package which always contains some
combination of Freel, Valentin, Coffey, Majewski and Livingston. I know
they're not all tradeable, but you get the idea. My guess is they're going
to mention names like Bruce, Cueto, Thompson, etc. and remember you're
getting him for 1 year unless you can negotiate a 5+ year deal with none
other than Scott Boras. I don't see it in our best interest when you
consider the back problems.

Think something like Alex Rios instead.

On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
<kmcclave@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>
>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>performance I would call "good," though.
>

Jeez, man, tough crowd.

Without a doubt, yes, Bruce's first year really was that good.
There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
age or younger in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
with them.

I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...


21 or younger, played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
.767 in their rookie season
============================
Ted Williams (1.045)
Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
Tony Conigliaro Age 19 (.884)
Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
Del Ennis Age 21 (.849)
Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
Ruben Sierra Age 20 (.778)
Gus Bell Age 21 (.776)
Hank Aaron Age 20 (.769)
Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)



It's even more impressive when you include only those guys who
played at least 35 games in CF. where he's on an exclusive list with 4
HOFers.


21 or younger, played at least 100 games, with 35 or more in CF, and
OPS >= .767 in their rookie season
=============================
Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)

On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:

>
>That means they NEED a catcher, a centerfielder a left fielder and
>depending on Gonzalez maybe even a shorstop.

I keep having this nagging feeling that Renteria will find a home
here.

Matt Holiday sort of fits the bill, except that Boros is his agent,
which means he's a one year rental no matter what, and WJ seems to
target malcontent or under-appreciated superstar types and gets them
into LT contracts.

I have this feeling (sinking) that Pat Burrell might be the LFer that
fits the WJ profile the best.

Although in any case, I question whether or not we have the cash to do
anything. If the numbers being put out ther are close to accurate,
we don't have enough $$$ to do squat other than to pay who we've
already promised.

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
> On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
> <kmcclave@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>>
>>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>>performance I would call "good," though.
>>
>
> Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>
> Without a doubt, yes, Bruce's first year really was that good.
> There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
> age or younger in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
> with them.
>
> I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>
>
> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
> .767 in their rookie season
> ============================
> Ted Williams (1.045)
> Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
> Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
> Tony Conigliaro Age 19 (.884)
> Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
> Del Ennis Age 21 (.849)
> Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
> Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
> Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
> Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
> Ruben Sierra Age 20 (.778)
> Gus Bell Age 21 (.776)
> Hank Aaron Age 20 (.769)
> Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)

You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing guys
who were all better than him in their rookie year. How many rookies do you
have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?

> It's even more impressive when you include only those guys who
> played at least 35 games in CF. where he's on an exclusive list with 4
> HOFers.
>
>
> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, with 35 or more in CF, and
> OPS >= .767 in their rookie season

Isn't that about as relevant as RBI with 2 out and RISP beyond the 7th
inning?

On Oct 3, 8:05 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
> "JustTom" <t...@nomail.please> wrote in message
>
> news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
>
>
>
> > On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
> > <kmccl...@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>
> >>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
> >>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
> >>performance I would call "good," though.
>
> > Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>
> > Without a doubt, yes,  Bruce's first year really was that good.
> > There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
> > age or younger  in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
> > with them.
>
> > I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>
> > 21 or younger,  played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
> > .767 in their rookie season
> > ============================
> > Ted Williams (1.045)
> > Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
> > Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
> > Tony Conigliaro  Age 19 (.884)
> > Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
> > Del Ennis   Age 21 (.849)
> > Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
> > Willie Mays      Age 20 (.828)
> > Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
> > Lloyd Waner  Age 21 (.806)
> > Ruben Sierra Age 20   (.778)
> > Gus Bell      Age 21 (.776)
> > Hank Aaron   Age 20 (.769)
> > Jay Bruce  Age 21   (.767)
>
> You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing guys
> who were all better than him in their rookie year.  How many rookies doyou
> have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?

That's really the point of the list. How many successful 21-year old
rookies do you see at all? At Bruce's age, most players are two or
three years away from the majors, while he's already a roughly league-
average player. Votto's a very promising player, he'll be in the top
two for RoY, and he's already three years older than Jay Bruce is.

At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)

On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 17:12:07 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Oct 3, 8:05 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
>> "JustTom" <t...@nomail.please> wrote in message
>>
>> news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
>> > <kmccl...@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>>
>> >>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>> >>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>> >>performance I would call "good," though.
>>
>> > Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>>
>> > Without a doubt, yes,  Bruce's first year really was that good.
>> > There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
>> > age or younger  in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
>> > with them.
>>
>> > I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>>
>> > 21 or younger,  played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
>> > .767 in their rookie season
>> > ============================
>> > Ted Williams (1.045)
>> > Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
>> > Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
>> > Tony Conigliaro  Age 19 (.884)
>> > Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
>> > Del Ennis   Age 21 (.849)
>> > Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
>> > Willie Mays      Age 20 (.828)
>> > Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
>> > Lloyd Waner  Age 21 (.806)
>> > Ruben Sierra Age 20   (.778)
>> > Gus Bell      Age 21 (.776)
>> > Hank Aaron   Age 20 (.769)
>> > Jay Bruce  Age 21   (.767)
>>
>> You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing guys
>> who were all better than him in their rookie year.  How many rookies do you
>> have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?
>
>That's really the point of the list. How many successful 21-year old
>rookies do you see at all? At Bruce's age, most players are two or
>three years away from the majors, while he's already a roughly league-
>average player. Votto's a very promising player, he'll be in the top
>two for RoY, and he's already three years older than Jay Bruce is.
>
>At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
>Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)

I suspect that maybe I should have asked about OPS+ not OPS...

***************************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"Few (people) are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the
censure of their colleagues, the wrath of society. Moral courage is a
rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is
the one essential, vital, quality for those who seek to change a world
which yields most painfully to change." ~Robert F. Kennedy
***************************************************************************

On Oct 5, 8:36 pm, Kevin McClave <kmccl...@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com>
wrote:
> On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 17:12:07 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunn...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> >On Oct 3, 8:05 pm, "RJA" <r...@nospam.cinci.rr.com> wrote:
> >> "JustTom" <t...@nomail.please> wrote in message
>
> >>news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
>
> >> > On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
> >> > <kmccl...@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>
> >> >>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
> >> >>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
> >> >>performance I would call "good," though.
>
> >> > Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>
> >> > Without a doubt, yes,  Bruce's first year really was that good.
> >> > There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
> >> > age or younger  in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
> >> > with them.
>
> >> > I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>
> >> > 21 or younger,  played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
> >> > .767 in their rookie season
> >> > ============================
> >> > Ted Williams (1.045)
> >> > Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
> >> > Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
> >> > Tony Conigliaro  Age 19 (.884)
> >> > Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
> >> > Del Ennis   Age 21 (.849)
> >> > Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
> >> > Willie Mays      Age 20 (.828)
> >> > Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
> >> > Lloyd Waner  Age 21 (.806)
> >> > Ruben Sierra Age 20   (.778)
> >> > Gus Bell      Age 21 (.776)
> >> > Hank Aaron   Age 20 (.769)
> >> > Jay Bruce  Age 21   (.767)
>
> >> You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing guys
> >> who were all better than him in their rookie year.  How many rookiesdo you
> >> have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?
>
> >That's really the point of the list.  How many successful 21-year old
> >rookies do you see at all?  At Bruce's age, most players are two or
> >three years away from the majors, while he's already a roughly league-
> >average player.  Votto's a very promising player, he'll be in the top
> >two for RoY, and he's already three years older than Jay Bruce is.
>
> >At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
> >Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)
>
> I suspect that maybe I should have asked about OPS+ not OPS...

There is that. But even so, Bruce is a very respectable 96,
considering his youth and inexperience. Better than Brandon Phillips
in '08.

On Fri, 3 Oct 2008 20:05:04 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
>news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
>> On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
>> <kmcclave@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>>>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>>>performance I would call "good," though.
>>>
>>
>> Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>>
>> Without a doubt, yes, Bruce's first year really was that good.
>> There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
>> age or younger in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
>> with them.
>>
>> I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>>
>>
>> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
>> .767 in their rookie season
>> ============================
>> Ted Williams (1.045)
>> Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
>> Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
>> Tony Conigliaro Age 19 (.884)
>> Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
>> Del Ennis Age 21 (.849)
>> Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
>> Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
>> Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
>> Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
>> Ruben Sierra Age 20 (.778)
>> Gus Bell Age 21 (.776)
>> Hank Aaron Age 20 (.769)
>> Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)
>
>You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing guys
>who were all better than him in their rookie year. How many rookies do you
>have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?
>

There are no other names on the list. That was the point. What he
accomplished was pretty good and has only been bested by 13 other
outfielders. The "forgotten names" on the list I guess would be
Blefary and Ennis.

Kevin asked if a .767 OPS was good for a rookie corner outfielder so I
went and found out how many people had done it or better. I did add
relative to his age, because a .767 from a 28 year old rookie
obviously isn't as impressive .

>> It's even more impressive when you include only those guys who
>> played at least 35 games in CF. where he's on an exclusive list with 4
>> HOFers.
>>
>>
>> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, with 35 or more in CF, and
>> OPS >= .767 in their rookie season
>
>Isn't that about as relevant as RBI with 2 out and RISP beyond the 7th
>inning?
>


CF is a much more demanding defensive position, so his ability to play
that position added to the value and makes it even more rare. Again,
a .767 ops from a rookie who also has the ability to play a decent
centerfield is much more valuable than a Greg Luzinski or Adam Dunn
doing it.

He was a 21 year old rookie, who posted a .767 OPS and played a third
of his games in CF. That's a pretty good start to a career.

On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 17:12:07 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg@gmail.com>
wrote:
>
>At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
>Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)
>
>

You know, reds aside, it's simply amazing to me that Ted Williams
was over 100 points higher than #2.

On Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:36:33 -0400, Kevin McClave
<kmcclave@SPAMBUNKERtwcny.rr.com> wrote:

>
>I suspect that maybe I should have asked about OPS+ not OPS...

Still only 22 other outfielders 21 or younger, and only 10 who played
>= 35 games in CF.

On Wed, 1 Oct 2008 22:20:37 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:

>"David Short" <David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
>news:gc05kr$kf5$1@posting.glorb.com...
>> Kevin McClave wrote:
>>> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>>>> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>>>> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>>>> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>>>
>>> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
>>> nucleus consistently score enough runs?
>>
>> Do you remember the old magic 8 ball?
>>
>> "It's too soon to tell" would be the appropriate answer here.
>>
>> We don't know what they're gonna do at catcher.
>> We don't know that Phillips will be back.
>> We don't know that they will keep Edwin.
>> I don't know who is gonna play at shortstop.
>> I don't know who is gonna play in center or in left.
>>
>> I said Bruce, Votto and Voltron were safe...with Yonder in AA I can see
>> them deciding to trade Votto instead of moving him to left.
>>
>> I follow the reds as much as anybody I know, I gave you my best guess
>> about what the reds would do this off season and I don't have a clue about
>> how well the offense will perform simply because I don't have enough
>> information.
>>
>> I agree that scoring runs is something the front office needs to be
>> concerned about.
>
>Here's my plan.
>
>1) Sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B and lead off
>2) Move Phillips, either to SS or to the Washinton Ex-Reds for Zimmerman.

You're dreaming on this one. Zimmerman ain't going nowhere.

>3) Move Edwin to 1B
>4) Move Votto to LF
>
>Now you have a leadoff hitter, offense in LF and power on the corners and
>Edwin no longer has to throw.
>

Problem is when the next great hope Alonso gets put in the lineup in
2010, you replaced just about your only decent RHed bat with another
lefty.

On Oct 6, 5:12 pm, t...@nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
> On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 17:12:07 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunn...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> >At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
> >Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)
>
> You know,  reds aside,  it's simply amazing to me that Ted Williams
> was over 100 points higher than #2.

Statts like that are why I tend to view Williams as the game's best
hitter. If he'd played during the war years, he'd likely have 700
homers and approached a .350 average.

Jay Bruce will not be that good ;)

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:48ea7a75.375777735@newsgroups.comcast.net...
> On Fri, 3 Oct 2008 20:05:04 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
>>news:48e64017.98649140@newsgroups.comcast.net...
>>> On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
>>> <kmcclave@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>>>>good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>>>>performance I would call "good," though.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>>>
>>> Without a doubt, yes, Bruce's first year really was that good.
>>> There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
>>> age or younger in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
>>> with them.
>>>
>>> I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>>>
>>>
>>> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
>>> .767 in their rookie season
>>> ============================
>>> Ted Williams (1.045)
>>> Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
>>> Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
>>> Tony Conigliaro Age 19 (.884)
>>> Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
>>> Del Ennis Age 21 (.849)
>>> Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
>>> Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
>>> Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
>>> Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
>>> Ruben Sierra Age 20 (.778)
>>> Gus Bell Age 21 (.776)
>>> Hank Aaron Age 20 (.769)
>>> Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)
>>
>>You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then listing
>>guys
>>who were all better than him in their rookie year. How many rookies do
>>you
>>have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?
>>
>
> There are no other names on the list. That was the point. What he
> accomplished was pretty good and has only been bested by 13 other
> outfielders. The "forgotten names" on the list I guess would be
> Blefary and Ennis.
>
> Kevin asked if a .767 OPS was good for a rookie corner outfielder so I
> went and found out how many people had done it or better. I did add
> relative to his age, because a .767 from a 28 year old rookie
> obviously isn't as impressive .
>
>>> It's even more impressive when you include only those guys who
>>> played at least 35 games in CF. where he's on an exclusive list with 4
>>> HOFers.
>>>
>>>
>>> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, with 35 or more in CF, and
>>> OPS >= .767 in their rookie season
>>
>>Isn't that about as relevant as RBI with 2 out and RISP beyond the 7th
>>inning?
>>
>
>
> CF is a much more demanding defensive position, so his ability to play
> that position added to the value and makes it even more rare. Again,
> a .767 ops from a rookie who also has the ability to play a decent
> centerfield is much more valuable than a Greg Luzinski or Adam Dunn
> doing it.
>
> He was a 21 year old rookie, who posted a .767 OPS and played a third
> of his games in CF. That's a pretty good start to a career.

I'd argue that he can't play CF. He was shaky at best in the OF this year,
with 10 errors in 4 months. He spent time in center, but he's not adequate.

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:48ea8332.378014203@newsgroups.comcast.net...
> On Wed, 1 Oct 2008 22:20:37 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>
>>"David Short" <David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote in message
>>news:gc05kr$kf5$1@posting.glorb.com...
>>> Kevin McClave wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:27:01 -0400, David Short
>>>>> You still need a catcher and a right handed 1b/left field bat for 10
>>>>> million. Or you need to buy one on the free agent market and deal for
>>>>> the other. Of course...they could just bring back Paul Bako.
>>>>
>>>> The question not directly addressed in all of that is will that
>>>> nucleus consistently score enough runs?
>>>
>>> Do you remember the old magic 8 ball?
>>>
>>> "It's too soon to tell" would be the appropriate answer here.
>>>
>>> We don't know what they're gonna do at catcher.
>>> We don't know that Phillips will be back.
>>> We don't know that they will keep Edwin.
>>> I don't know who is gonna play at shortstop.
>>> I don't know who is gonna play in center or in left.
>>>
>>> I said Bruce, Votto and Voltron were safe...with Yonder in AA I can see
>>> them deciding to trade Votto instead of moving him to left.
>>>
>>> I follow the reds as much as anybody I know, I gave you my best guess
>>> about what the reds would do this off season and I don't have a clue
>>> about
>>> how well the offense will perform simply because I don't have enough
>>> information.
>>>
>>> I agree that scoring runs is something the front office needs to be
>>> concerned about.
>>
>>Here's my plan.
>>
>>1) Sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B and lead off
>>2) Move Phillips, either to SS or to the Washinton Ex-Reds for Zimmerman.
>
> You're dreaming on this one. Zimmerman ain't going nowhere.

For 5 tools, I wouldn't put anything past Bowden.

>>3) Move Edwin to 1B
>>4) Move Votto to LF
>>
>>Now you have a leadoff hitter, offense in LF and power on the corners and
>>Edwin no longer has to throw.
>>
>
> Problem is when the next great hope Alonso gets put in the lineup in
> 2010, you replaced just about your only decent RHed bat with another
> lefty.

I can't consider a guy who can't hit right handed pitching to be a good
right hander. Besides, I doubt Alonso is going to play 1 year of minor
league ball and then take over in 2010. We haven't seen him hit with wood
yet.

On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 16:10:57 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunnetg@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Oct 6, 5:12=A0pm, t...@nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:
>> On Sun, 5 Oct 2008 17:12:07 -0700 (PDT), tom dunne <dunn...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> >At any rate, here's one of those names that didn't crack the list:
>> >Barry Bonds Age 21 (.746)
>>
>> You know, =A0reds aside, =A0it's simply amazing to me that Ted Williams
>> was over 100 points higher than #2.
>
>Statts like that are why I tend to view Williams as the game's best
>hitter. If he'd played during the war years, he'd likely have 700
>homers and approached a .350 average.
>
>Jay Bruce will not be that good ;)

No, but he ain't bad.

I've seen a lot of talk and discussion about what a bust he was, when
the facts show he had a pretty good start.

On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 22:45:14 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
wrote:
>
>I can't consider a guy who can't hit right handed pitching to be a good
>right hander. Besides, I doubt Alonso is going to play 1 year of minor
>league ball and then take over in 2010. We haven't seen him hit with wood
>yet.
>

He signed a MLB contract meaning he's on the 40 man roster from day 1
and he has a guaranteed invite to ST next year and in 2010.

Unless he's a total bust, I think he gets rushed up in 2010.

RJA wrote:
> "JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
>>> "JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
>>>> On Wed, 01 Oct 2008 16:48:24 -0400, Kevin McClave
>>>> <kmcclave@SPAM666twcny.rr.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Is a .767 OPS from a corner OF, even a rookie corner OF, really that
>>>>> good? That's not a rhetorical question...it doesn't seem like a
>>>>> performance I would call "good," though.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Jeez, man, tough crowd.
>>>>
>>>> Without a doubt, yes, Bruce's first year really was that good.
>>>> There are only a handful of OFers who have had better OPS years at his
>>>> age or younger in their first year, and most have "HOF" associated
>>>> with them.
>>>>
>>>> I've been playing with the Baseball Reference Finder thing...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> 21 or younger, played at least 100 games, all in the OF, and OPS >=
>>>> .767 in their rookie season
>>>> ============================
>>>> Ted Williams (1.045)
>>>> Frank Robinson Age 20 (.937)
>>>> Joe Dimaggio Age 21 (.928)
>>>> Tony Conigliaro Age 19 (.884)
>>>> Curt Blefary Age 21 (.851)
>>>> Del Ennis Age 21 (.849)
>>>> Darryl Strawberry Age 21 (.848)
>>>> Willie Mays Age 20 (.828)
>>>> Richie Ashburn Age 21 (.810)
>>>> Lloyd Waner Age 21 (.806)
>>>> Ruben Sierra Age 20 (.778)
>>>> Gus Bell Age 21 (.776)
>>>> Hank Aaron Age 20 (.769)
>>>> Jay Bruce Age 21 (.767)
>>>
>>> You're showing us that he's at the bottom of that list and then
>>> listing guys
>>> who were all better than him in their rookie year. How many rookies
>>> do you
>>> have at age 21 with an OPS >= .767 who are forgotten names?
snip
> I'd argue that he can't play CF. He was shaky at best in the OF this
> year, with 10 errors in 4 months. He spent time in center, but he's not
> adequate.

and that's the problem with this type of list. We've taken a list of Jay
Bruce's most positive attributes, lumped them together and set them up
as the minimum requirements for a "club." We've gathered together all
the players that have those same attributes or better, made a group and
declared Jay Bruce to be a representative sample.

If you take a list of outfielders who became regulars at 20,21 and
22...you have a list of comparables. That's still pretty good company to
be in, but it will include folks like Jose Guillen and other weaker
lights. Stop trying to lump the kid in there with Ted Williams. That's
just not right to either of them.

dfs

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
news:48eb55da.431950887@newsgroups.comcast.net...
> On Mon, 6 Oct 2008 22:45:14 -0400, "RJA" <rja@nospam.cinci.rr.com>
> wrote:
>>
>>I can't consider a guy who can't hit right handed pitching to be a good
>>right hander. Besides, I doubt Alonso is going to play 1 year of minor
>>league ball and then take over in 2010. We haven't seen him hit with wood
>>yet.
>>
>
> He signed a MLB contract meaning he's on the 40 man roster from day 1
> and he has a guaranteed invite to ST next year and in 2010.
>
> Unless he's a total bust, I think he gets rushed up in 2010.

Right now, he's the 2nd best first baseman in the organization until he
proves otherwise. He can be dealt for need as well.

On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:28:58 -0400, David Short
<David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>
>and that's the problem with this type of list. We've taken a list of Jay
>Bruce's most positive attributes, lumped them together and set them up
>as the minimum requirements for a "club." We've gathered together all
>the players that have those same attributes or better, made a group and
>declared Jay Bruce to be a representative sample.

I did nothing of the kind. Did you miss the original question?

The part I tried to answer was "Is a .767 OPS even that great for a
rookie corner OFer?"

Other than producing the list of other rookies who have bettered it,
how would you have answered the question?


>
>If you take a list of outfielders who became regulars at 20,21 and
>22...you have a list of comparables. That's still pretty good company to
>be in, but it will include folks like Jose Guillen and other weaker
>lights. Stop trying to lump the kid in there with Ted Williams. That's
>just not right to either of them.
>

How do you know I'm not comparing him with Gus Bell or Curt Blefary?

No one tried to lump anyone with anyone. Kevin asked a question and
for fun, I answered it using the parameters he specified. I didn't
trot the stats out of the blue unbidden and say " I think Jay Bruce is
one of the alltime greats." I did say that there were a lot of
HOFers on the list, but that was nothing more than an observation.

I also indicated elsewhere that Ted Williams had a bigger gap between
himself and second than any other span in the group. The reality is
that for this discussion Ted Williams doesn't belond in a group with
anyone. As with most hitting stats, he is in a class by himself.

However, the alternate view is just as unfair. The implication
seems to be that his rookie year sucked and he's already a bust.

He may very well turn out to be a bust, but he doesn't have anything
to be ashamed of in his first year, which was pretty good, especially
at so tender an age.

"JustTom" <tom@nomail.please> wrote in message
> On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:28:58 -0400, David Short
>>
>>and that's the problem with this type of list. We've taken a list of Jay
>>Bruce's most positive attributes, lumped them together and set them up
>>as the minimum requirements for a "club." We've gathered together all
>>the players that have those same attributes or better, made a group and
>>declared Jay Bruce to be a representative sample.
>
> I did nothing of the kind. Did you miss the original question?
>
> The part I tried to answer was "Is a .767 OPS even that great for a
> rookie corner OFer?"
>
> Other than producing the list of other rookies who have bettered it,
> how would you have answered the question?

Your question is answered in what you quoted.

>>If you take a list of outfielders who became regulars at 20,21 and
>>22...you have a list of comparables. That's still pretty good company to
>>be in, but it will include folks like Jose Guillen and other weaker
>>lights. Stop trying to lump the kid in there with Ted Williams. That's
>>just not right to either of them.

When you list outfielders who became regulars at 20,21 and 22 you don't give
Bruce special credit for being a centerfielder which he doesn't really
deserve because he isn't going to stick there. A better answer would add
that they put up an OPS+ between 86 and 106. That way you've not only
established a floor for your comparables that's below Bruce, but a ceiling
as well. That's a much less spectacular list of players, all of whom had
some serious top end.

> How do you know I'm not comparing him with Gus Bell or Curt Blefary?
>
> No one tried to lump anyone with anyone. Kevin asked a question and
> for fun, I answered it using the parameters he specified. I didn't
> trot the stats out of the blue unbidden and say " I think Jay Bruce is
> one of the alltime greats." I did say that there were a lot of
> HOFers on the list, but that was nothing more than an observation.
>
> I also indicated elsewhere that Ted Williams had a bigger gap between
> himself and second than any other span in the group. The reality is
> that for this discussion Ted Williams doesn't belond in a group with
> anyone. As with most hitting stats, he is in a class by himself.
>
> However, the alternate view is just as unfair. The implication
> seems to be that his rookie year sucked and he's already a bust.
>
> He may very well turn out to be a bust, but he doesn't have anything
> to be ashamed of in his first year, which was pretty good, especially
> at so tender an age.

We're very much in agreement about that.

dfs

On Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:39:40 GMT, tom@nomail.please (JustTom) wrote:

>On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:28:58 -0400, David Short
><David.no.Short@Spam.Wright.Please.edu> wrote:
>>
>>and that's the problem with this type of list. We've taken a list of Jay
>>Bruce's most positive attributes, lumped them together and set them up
>>as the minimum requirements for a "club." We've gathered together all
>>the players that have those same attributes or better, made a group and
>>declared Jay Bruce to be a representative sample.
>
>I did nothing of the kind. Did you miss the original question?
>
>The part I tried to answer was "Is a .767 OPS even that great for a
>rookie corner OFer?"
>
>Other than producing the list of other rookies who have bettered it,
>how would you have answered the question?
>
>>If you take a list of outfielders who became regulars at 20,21 and
>>22...you have a list of comparables. That's still pretty good company to
>>be in, but it will include folks like Jose Guillen and other weaker
>>lights. Stop trying to lump the kid in there with Ted Williams. That's
>>just not right to either of them.
>
>How do you know I'm not comparing him with Gus Bell or Curt Blefary?
>
>No one tried to lump anyone with anyone. Kevin asked a question and
>for fun, I answered it using the parameters he specified. I didn't
>trot the stats out of the blue unbidden and say " I think Jay Bruce is
>one of the alltime greats." I did say that there were a lot of
>HOFers on the list, but that was nothing more than an observation.
>
>I also indicated elsewhere that Ted Williams had a bigger gap between
>himself and second than any other span in the group. The reality is
>that for this discussion Ted Williams doesn't belond in a group with
>anyone. As with most hitting stats, he is in a class by himself.
>
>However, the alternate view is just as unfair. The implication
>seems to be that his rookie year sucked and he's already a bust.

The implication by whom? Certainly not by me. It's waaaaayyy too early
to make such a suggestion, but that doesn't mean that he had a "good"
rookie year, either.

I still don't think that a .767 OPS from a *corner* OF is that big a
deal, even for a rookie. The fact that he is only 21 is significant,
yes, but you added the 35 games in CF stipulation, which actually has
nothing to do with the question I originally asked. As Rich said, he
isn't really a Major League CF (Kearns and Pena also played CF for the
Reds...doesn't mean they should have).

For one easy example of what's missing from your list as an answer to my
question as asked, Adam Dunn as a 21 year old rookie had a .949 OPS and
a 136 OPS+ (he has a career OPS+ of 130, exactly what he put up for us
and them this season). Austin Kearns didn't arrive until he was 22, but
as a 22 year old rookie put up a .907 OPS and a 134 OPS+ (Kearns career
OPS+ is 106...dragged down by the horrid 66 he put up this season).
*Those* are good seasons for rookie corner OFs....they're better than
good, in fact, but "good" top me lies somewhere between there and what
Bruce did in his first year.

>He may very well turn out to be a bust, but he doesn't have anything
>to be ashamed of in his first year, which was pretty good, especially
>at so tender an age.

He doesn't have anything to be ashamed of. Nobody here said otherwise. I
only took exception to calling it "good" I don't consider that output
"good." Seems somewhat mediocre to me for a corner OF (which is what a
96 OPS+ suggests).

******************************************************************
Kevin McClave

"To justify himself, each relies on
the other's crime." ~Albert Camus
******************************************************************