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Another BILL JAMES mathematical doodle he invented to project an estimated
chance a player had to acheive a certain total goal; used to be called
"Favorite Toy."


Albert Pujols (age: 28)

Category "Career Target" Avg./Yr. Yrs. Likely Percentage
numbers needed to achieve

3,000 H 1,469 184 7 38%
3,631 H * 2,100 184 7 11%
793 D 451 40 7 12%
763 HR 444 37 7 8%
2,000 RBI 1,023 115 7 29%
2,298 RBI 1,321 115 7 11%
6,857 TB 4,001 337 7 9%


* NOW
3,631 H to pass Musial in Hits 1,531
793 D to pass Speaker in #1 Doubles 342
763 HR to pass B.B. in #1 HR 319
2,298 RBI to pass Aaron in #1 RBI 977
6,857 TB to pass Aaron in #1 TB 2,856


3-2-1 Weighted "Avg./Yr." from previous 3 years; 2008 number is weighted
'3', 2007 is '2', 2006 '1'; then summed and divided by 6 to get an Average
per Year on category.

Yrs remaining = (42-age) / 2
[Pujols currently projected to quit at 35; "Yrs." will naturally get older
as he ages 1 yr for every 2 he plays]


Likely Percentage to achieve = [ (Avg/Yr. * Yrs.) / Target number] - 0.5


A conservative Percentage at the least, considering the Yrs. remaining when
young (ex., 28) are automatically extended as the player ages, see table
below.

Age Yrs. projected to play Age at quitting

28 7 35
30 6 36
32 5 37
34 4 38
36 3 39
38 2 40
40 1 41