A
09-24-2008, 12:10 PM
x-no-archive: yes
With the continual problem with Starters unable to go more than 6 IP
(average), who stays and who goes? Not to mention Carpenter's new problem,
which makes it more important the better ones STAY.
My opinions.
STARTERS
Staying
----------
Kyle LOHSE (15-6 3.78) - despite many complaints in this ng on trading him
(for someone else they think will do even better), you don't throw away a
15-game winner when most others on the team aren't doing their share. Leads
all starters with exactly 200 IP. Also performed well with fewer runs
scored. Team scores only 4.2 R/G for him, lowest for any regular Starter.
(3.77 ERC, what should have been his ERA with his raw statistics). 1.30
WHIP .272 O-AVG .418 O-SLG.
Probably one more start (Sunday) to get to 16 wins to round-out his best
year in baseball.
Pay him what he is worth--reasonably for the best team Starter (and for
durability) in '08.
A bird in the hand is better than two somewhere out in the free-agent
bushes.
Todd WELLEMEYER (12-9 3.69) - Keep him! 185.1 IP in 31 GS with one more
by Sept. 28. A developing pitcher, has good stuff; leads pitchers with 130
K's and tied with Wainwright at .243 O-AVG. Team also seems to score more
Runs on the average for him (4.7) than with other starters, with exception
of Wainwright, and in Carpenter's 3 starts. 3.66 ERC. 1.24 WHIP .415
O-SLG.
Adam WAINWRIGHT (10-3 3.21) - no discussion necessary. Leads starters in:
1.14 WHIP, .393 O-SLG, (tied with Wellemeyer at .243 O-AVG), 3.21 ERA,
giving up only 115 Hits, 29 W and 12 HR in 126 IP (19 GS). A team-leading
5.8 R/G with him starting. Missed 2+ months with strange finger injury,
costing the Birds an almost-certain chance of post-season play. Not blaming
him, just stating what would have happened if he had been able to pitch the
whole year, injury-free.
His ERC is a terrific 2.98.
Braden LOOPER (12-14 4.13) - difficult to measure. Some games were very
good; on others he got blown away early or had one bad inning that ruined a
chance for a win. Team scores only 4.3 R/G for him; lower than the others
exc. Lohse at 4.2. One of only two CGs all year by the Starters; Wainwright
had the other. May be better for the team returning to the bullpen, but may
still be necessary as a starter; esp. if Carpenter can't start the season
(April 6, '09 1st game). ERC shows he got lucky in many games, ERA should
have been 4.34. 32 GS and 192 IP (with one more start) give him plus's for
durability. Would be great to show he has the potential to start
consistently next year if he can go 8 IP in his last start in '08 for 200
IP, and get to 13 wins.
..278 O-AVG .438 O-SLG. 1.32 WHIP.
Chris CARPENTER (0-1 1.88 as Starter) - potential ace (or co-ace with
Wainwright), needs to get healthy to be at his Cy Young-possible best as he
was in '05, but even a 90% Carpenter is still better than most other
pitchers at 100%. If you count his 3 starts, he leads the team with an
outstanding .314 O-SLG. 1.26 WHIP facing only 58 batters in 14.1 IP. 5.0
R/G for him; second to Wainwright.
Going
--------
Joel PINEIRO (6-7 5.19) - excellent...for trade bait! Too inconsistent,
despite flashes of good parts in some of his 24 GS and 138.2 IP. "Leads"
starters with an awful .306 O-AVG and a whopping .514 O-SLG. His 5.19 ERA
was bad enough; got lucky in his games, though. His ERC was actually
*worse* at 5.25!
Possible Stay (bullpen, long-relief?)
--------------------------------------------------
Brad THOMPSON (2-2 4.81) - Started 5 games, 24.1 IP with 104 BF. 1.44 WHIP,
..309 O-AVG .457 O-SLG. Possible trade bait with Pineiro in a two-for-one
deal for a *real* starter.
McClellan, Perez, and Motte in '08 give Birds more leeway in developing a
strong bullpen in '09, making Thompson expendable; esp. if they can get a
good/great LH Reliever such as Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who seems to be
high on Mozeliak's list to 'get' for '09.
____
RELIEVERS
Staying
----------
Russ SPRINGER - if he decides to go another year (not-an-"old" 40), a cinch
for getting re-signed by Birds.
Ryan FRANKLIN - probably stays, though not in Closer role, despite decent
job for most of season, although one bad stretch in mid-season, probably
from massive over-work. Long or mid-relief more likely in '09 if he stays.
Led team with 16 SVs (5 games remaining to get to 20).
Jason ISRINGHAUSEN - I'm betting the team will re-sign him at a lower base
but with incentives. Not that I necessarily want him to stay, just my hunch
the team will do precisely that. They want to see him get to 300 career
Saves in a Cardinals' uniform as he now is the team's all-time Saves leader;
only needs 7 more, then he will be used in short-term relief situations
while Motte, Perez, and McClellan battle for the Closer role.
Kyle McCLELLAN,
Jason MOTTSE, and
Chris PEREZ All three in a battle for the prime Closer
role. The future of the bullpen looks better with these 3 than how it
looked in mid-2008, at least on the Right side!
Going for sure
--------------------
Randy FLORES (L) - not good enough in '09 to warrant a stay, contract over
and free agency looms. Could be a good fit for another team.
Ron VILLONE - ditto for him as for Flores.
With the continual problem with Starters unable to go more than 6 IP
(average), who stays and who goes? Not to mention Carpenter's new problem,
which makes it more important the better ones STAY.
My opinions.
STARTERS
Staying
----------
Kyle LOHSE (15-6 3.78) - despite many complaints in this ng on trading him
(for someone else they think will do even better), you don't throw away a
15-game winner when most others on the team aren't doing their share. Leads
all starters with exactly 200 IP. Also performed well with fewer runs
scored. Team scores only 4.2 R/G for him, lowest for any regular Starter.
(3.77 ERC, what should have been his ERA with his raw statistics). 1.30
WHIP .272 O-AVG .418 O-SLG.
Probably one more start (Sunday) to get to 16 wins to round-out his best
year in baseball.
Pay him what he is worth--reasonably for the best team Starter (and for
durability) in '08.
A bird in the hand is better than two somewhere out in the free-agent
bushes.
Todd WELLEMEYER (12-9 3.69) - Keep him! 185.1 IP in 31 GS with one more
by Sept. 28. A developing pitcher, has good stuff; leads pitchers with 130
K's and tied with Wainwright at .243 O-AVG. Team also seems to score more
Runs on the average for him (4.7) than with other starters, with exception
of Wainwright, and in Carpenter's 3 starts. 3.66 ERC. 1.24 WHIP .415
O-SLG.
Adam WAINWRIGHT (10-3 3.21) - no discussion necessary. Leads starters in:
1.14 WHIP, .393 O-SLG, (tied with Wellemeyer at .243 O-AVG), 3.21 ERA,
giving up only 115 Hits, 29 W and 12 HR in 126 IP (19 GS). A team-leading
5.8 R/G with him starting. Missed 2+ months with strange finger injury,
costing the Birds an almost-certain chance of post-season play. Not blaming
him, just stating what would have happened if he had been able to pitch the
whole year, injury-free.
His ERC is a terrific 2.98.
Braden LOOPER (12-14 4.13) - difficult to measure. Some games were very
good; on others he got blown away early or had one bad inning that ruined a
chance for a win. Team scores only 4.3 R/G for him; lower than the others
exc. Lohse at 4.2. One of only two CGs all year by the Starters; Wainwright
had the other. May be better for the team returning to the bullpen, but may
still be necessary as a starter; esp. if Carpenter can't start the season
(April 6, '09 1st game). ERC shows he got lucky in many games, ERA should
have been 4.34. 32 GS and 192 IP (with one more start) give him plus's for
durability. Would be great to show he has the potential to start
consistently next year if he can go 8 IP in his last start in '08 for 200
IP, and get to 13 wins.
..278 O-AVG .438 O-SLG. 1.32 WHIP.
Chris CARPENTER (0-1 1.88 as Starter) - potential ace (or co-ace with
Wainwright), needs to get healthy to be at his Cy Young-possible best as he
was in '05, but even a 90% Carpenter is still better than most other
pitchers at 100%. If you count his 3 starts, he leads the team with an
outstanding .314 O-SLG. 1.26 WHIP facing only 58 batters in 14.1 IP. 5.0
R/G for him; second to Wainwright.
Going
--------
Joel PINEIRO (6-7 5.19) - excellent...for trade bait! Too inconsistent,
despite flashes of good parts in some of his 24 GS and 138.2 IP. "Leads"
starters with an awful .306 O-AVG and a whopping .514 O-SLG. His 5.19 ERA
was bad enough; got lucky in his games, though. His ERC was actually
*worse* at 5.25!
Possible Stay (bullpen, long-relief?)
--------------------------------------------------
Brad THOMPSON (2-2 4.81) - Started 5 games, 24.1 IP with 104 BF. 1.44 WHIP,
..309 O-AVG .457 O-SLG. Possible trade bait with Pineiro in a two-for-one
deal for a *real* starter.
McClellan, Perez, and Motte in '08 give Birds more leeway in developing a
strong bullpen in '09, making Thompson expendable; esp. if they can get a
good/great LH Reliever such as Brian Fuentes of the Rockies, who seems to be
high on Mozeliak's list to 'get' for '09.
____
RELIEVERS
Staying
----------
Russ SPRINGER - if he decides to go another year (not-an-"old" 40), a cinch
for getting re-signed by Birds.
Ryan FRANKLIN - probably stays, though not in Closer role, despite decent
job for most of season, although one bad stretch in mid-season, probably
from massive over-work. Long or mid-relief more likely in '09 if he stays.
Led team with 16 SVs (5 games remaining to get to 20).
Jason ISRINGHAUSEN - I'm betting the team will re-sign him at a lower base
but with incentives. Not that I necessarily want him to stay, just my hunch
the team will do precisely that. They want to see him get to 300 career
Saves in a Cardinals' uniform as he now is the team's all-time Saves leader;
only needs 7 more, then he will be used in short-term relief situations
while Motte, Perez, and McClellan battle for the Closer role.
Kyle McCLELLAN,
Jason MOTTSE, and
Chris PEREZ All three in a battle for the prime Closer
role. The future of the bullpen looks better with these 3 than how it
looked in mid-2008, at least on the Right side!
Going for sure
--------------------
Randy FLORES (L) - not good enough in '09 to warrant a stay, contract over
and free agency looms. Could be a good fit for another team.
Ron VILLONE - ditto for him as for Flores.