No Monta: Time to Run Away

Posted by Adam Lauridsen on September 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 pm

I hope all the Warriors are enjoying the final restful, relaxing days of
their off-season. When training camp starts in a matter of weeks, I expect
Don Nelson to make it everything but restful and relaxing. As the harsh
reality of months without Monta settles in, the Warriors are left to
confront an offensive puzzle: how exactly do they plan to score points?

The Warriors averaged 111.0 points per game last year. With Davis, Pietrus
and Barnes departing and Ellis recovering from being hit by a satellite (or
whatever the latest theory is regarding his injury), the Warriors have lost
a combined 55.7 points - or more than half of their offense. They gain some
of that back with Maggette's 22.1 points, Turiaf's 6.6, and Williams' 5.9,
but they're still down roughly 22 points. However you cut it, they're going
to miss Monta's points.

Even more daunting than the numbers, however, is how Monta scored and what
his offensive ability did for the rest of the team. Monta shot such a high
percentage last year because he could either blow past you for the lay-up or
score over you with his mid-range jumper. As a result, it was nearly
impossible to stop him in single coverage, forcing teams to at least shade
over towards him to cut off penetration. Ellis not only put up points at a
great rate for the Warriors but made life easier for others like Jackson and
Harrington on the perimeter as their men cheated towards the paint. Without
Ellis, the Warriors lack a player capable of drawing a double team (with the
exception of Maggette when he's really hot). As a result, the Warriors are
likely to see a lot fewer open looks once the defense has a chance to get
set.

The Warriors can respond in four ways to the tighter man-on-man coverage:

First, they can try to drive past it. Unfortunately, with the exception of
Maggette (and potentially Williams - although he isn't a great finisher) the
team lacks penetrators. Jackson can get to the line and is savvy winding
his way to the basket, but it's unclear how the change in court spacing
without Ellis will alter his ability to find open seams. I'm guessing our
penetration game suffers greatly in Ellis' absence.

Second, they can shoot over it. I'm guessing the Warriors would be more than
happy to settle into this game plan (Jackson, Harrington, and Maggette
especially). With the exception of Maggette, however, the more long-range
looks we take the more likely we are to find ourselves a long way off the
lead. We saw the disastrous results last year when the team repeatedly
proved incapable of shooting over zone defenses. Nelson's first test this
year will be imposing offensive discipline on the team - keeping them from
settling for bad outside shots that other teams will be willing to give
them. The Warriors passed up these shots when they were at their best the
past two years. We'll see if those faint hints of restraint carry over to
this remade team.

Third, they can pass through it. If this team shocks everyone and
overachieves without Monta, it'll be because they have some latent,
previously untapped basketball IQ that allows them to be an above-average
half-court passing team. Williams could still prove to be the pass-first
point guard the Warriors have sorely missed, but it will also take some
excellent court vision from Jackson, Maggette and whoever starts at power
forward to make the Warriors' offense click. Unfortunately, out of that
group only Jackson is a proven talent with the ball in his hands - and that's
if he decides to pass rather than take more of the offense load on his
shoulders. Maggette was a bit of a black hole during his time with the
Clippers and neither Harrington nor Wright have blown anyone away with their
distributing abilities, although Wright could still develop into a nice cog
in the offense. Turiaf could be a darkhorse here since he at least learned
during his time in LA how to kick the ball out of the post to Kobe on the
wing. Long story short, however, the Warriors shouldn't be counting on ball
movement in the half-court for their open looks.

Finally, and most likely under Nelson, the Warriors can outrun it. This
brings me back to my point about a painful training camp. The Warriors may
not have a lot of talent at the 1 spot, but they have depth everywhere else.
To minimize their weaknesses, the team needs to play as few offensive sets
as possible in a traditional half-court posture. By breaking at every
opportunity, the team has a chance to use players like Wright, Azubuike,
Randolph, and Biedrins in a way that maximizes their athletic abilities
without needing a true point guard to set up the scoring opportunity. While
the Warriors have talked a big game the last two years when it comes to
running, we've yet to see a team truly dedicated to getting out on the break
with every shot - made or missed - like the old Run TMC teams or even the
Phoenix Suns of two or three years ago. If the Warriors are going to level
the odds without Monta, they'll need to upend their opponent's defensive
order. If the Warriors use their depth, youth and athleticism to keep teams
on their heels, they'll be in enough games to steal a few as they await
Monta's return.

On a very practical level, what does the all-out running style mean for
Nelson?

* Williams needs to get into shape. He seemingly played his days in New
Jersey carrying an extra layer of cushioning. That weight on a Nelson team
will leave him exhausted after 20-25 minutes a night.

* The youngsters need to produce in the open court and on defense. We
only have depth if we get something out of Wright, Belinelli, Randolph and,
possibly, Watson, Hendrix and/or Morrow. The youngsters don't need to put
it all together immediately, but they need to, at a minimum: (1) grab
rebounds to initiate the break, (2) push the ball at every opportunity, and
(3) play good enough defense that they're not an easy mark for opponents.
If any of the above can manage those three things, they'll get minutes in
Nelson's system. Last year, only Watson managed to do it on a sustained
basis. If we don't see production, our bench suddenly shrinks to Azubuike
and Turiaf.

* Jackson and Harrington need to have steady trigger fingers. As
exciting as the Warriors can be on the fast break, nothing was more
demoralizing than watching Jackson or Harrington pull up for a transition
three only to clank it and leave opponents open for an easy basket going the
other way. If we're going to run, we need to get to the rim or the line.
The players aren't working hard up and down the court to get Jackson and
Harrington three point looks. It'll be up to Nelson to emphasize restraint
and the Warriors' veterans to set the right tone.

* Maggette and Azubuike needs to hit open shots. The Warriors won't be
able to break on every possession. When they fail in getting to the rim,
plan B will be finding Corey or Kelenna for a mid-range jumper. If they can
hit those with regularity or get to the line, the Warriors will be able to
cover some of the things Monta brought the team last year. If Maggette
and/or Kelenna lose their touch from outside, however, the Warriors may end
up completely smothered and overmatched on offense. This team has lots of
complimentary pieces, but without Monta they're missing the keystone.

All of the above might just be my way of preparing myself for what could be
an ugly early stretch of the season. But despite the bleak outlook, there
will be fascinating coaching challenges to watch unfold. Nelson will learn
the strengths and weaknesses of his team during training camp. It'll then
be up to the old master to get the most out of whatever he has. Despite all
the "aww shucks" quotations that are sure to drop in late September and
early October, Nelson hopefully will not just be putting 5 players on a
basketball court and telling them to go to it. Nelson wanted more money for
the final year of his contract. It looks like he's going to have to earn
it.