At a much lower price.

"Lord Buckeye" <l_buckeye@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942b18@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com...
> At a much lower price.

I still would rather have ARod on my team. Just an opinion.

In article
<9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942b18@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
Lord Buckeye <l_buckeye@yahoo.com> wrote:

> At a much lower price.

Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.

Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
(4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=molinbe01&year=2008

ARod has driven in 47 runs in 165 plate appearances with runners in
scoring position, including himself 5 times, with an OPS of .813. He has
either been walked or hit by a pitch 35 times in those situations (9
intentional walks), hit 4 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 126 official
at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 358 total men on base so
far this year and driven in 51 of them, about 14%. This percentage is
somewhat depressed because teams pitch around ARod more often, but
however much he has been "prevented" from driving in runs there's just
no denying that overall Bengie has been more productive than ARod so far
this year with men on base.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=rodrial01&year=2008

Obligatory caution about the nature of RBIs, abbreviated: through
yesterday's games ARod is at 99 "Runs Created" while Bengie has reached
a staggering total of 53.

On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> In article
> <9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942...@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
>  Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > At a much lower price.
>
> Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.
>
> Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
> scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
> either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
> (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
> official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
> base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.

He's got what, 10 or 11 HR's? How has he only driven himself in 3
times? 133 AB's? Your 'stats' are whacked. Put down the crack pipe
buddy.

Lord Buckeye wrote:

> On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
>> In article
>> <9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942...@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
>> Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>> At a much lower price.
>> Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.
>>
>> Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
>> scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
>> either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
>> (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
>> official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
>> base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.
>
> He's got what, 10 or 11 HR's? How has he only driven himself in 3
> times? 133 AB's? Your 'stats' are whacked. Put down the crack pipe
> buddy.

You are having a reading comprehension problem. His first sentence said, "in 158
plate appearances with runners in scoring position...". His other HRs were solo
or with just a runner on first. And 158-14-11 = 133. Looks right to me.

On Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:04:27 -0700 (PDT), Lord Buckeye
<l_buckeye@yahoo.com> wrote:

>On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
>> In article
>> <9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942...@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
>>  Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>> > At a much lower price.
>>
>> Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.
>>
>> Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
>> scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
>> either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
>> (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
>> official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
>> base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.
>
>He's got what, 10 or 11 HR's? How has he only driven himself in 3
>times?

With runners in scoring position, he's hit 3 home runs.

>133 AB's?

With runners in scoring position.

>Your 'stats' are whacked. Put down the crack pipe buddy.

Maybe you should have taken the time to look up the stats and read a
little more carefully.
--
Greg Lentz

In article
<70daeac8-f3ae-41da-99e4-05c917a3aa3c@z11g2000prl.googlegroups.com>,
Lord Buckeye <l_buckeye@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> > In article
> > <9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942...@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
> >  Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> > > At a much lower price.
> >
> > Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.
> >
> > Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
> > scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
> > either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
> > (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
> > official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
> > base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.
>
> He's got what, 10 or 11 HR's? How has he only driven himself in 3
> times? 133 AB's? Your 'stats' are whacked. Put down the crack pipe
> buddy.

Move the phrase "in those situations" to the start of the sentence
and have another go at it.

In article <KAFtk.21005$uE5.4193@flpi144.ffdc.sbc.com>,
Jamal Bernhard <noone@nowhere.net> wrote:

> > On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> >>
> >> Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
> >> scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
> >> either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
> >> (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
> >> official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
> >> base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.

A couple of more pertinent facts of the case from the "RBI Analysis" section
of billjamesonline.net:

Bengie has driven in runs with 37.8% of his hits that haven't left the park,
20 of his 28 doubles and 22 of his 83 singles. No triples as yet, but perhaps
he's due for another Doug Mirabelli special before the season winds up.

ARod, in comparison, has driven in runs with just 26.7% of his singles and
doubles. He also has no triples.

So what does it mean? Is Molina just lucky to be getting his hits this often
when runners are on base, while Rodriguez is not? Or is all this a measure of
character?

Baseball Prospectus has something they call OBI%, the percentage of
runners on base during all of his plate appearances that he drives in. I
calculated this by hand for Bengie and ARod earlier today but had no
idea where their numbers ranked among all players. So here are the
players at the top and the bottom of the list of all major leaguers with
at least 300 plate appearances, along with Bengie's and ARod's current
positions.

1. Hamilton 21.8%
5. BMolina 20.4%
143. ARod 14.2%
241. Izturis 8.3%

ARod is about 0.5% below the median. A selection of players lower on the
list: Sabean favorite Alex Rios (14%), The Second Coming of Rick Ankiel
(13.5%), Giant Killer Russell Martin (12.9%), former MVPs Miguel Tejada
(12.8%) and Ichiro Suzuki (11.6%), Quintessential Rockie Todd Helton
(10.3%), and Captain Jason Varitek (8.6%).

Above BMolina: Hamilton, DeJesus (21.6%), J. Flores (20.8%), and Blake
for Cleveland (20.6%). Blake for LA is at 9.7%, but for whatever reason
Baseball Prospectus doesn't combine players' lines for multiple teams in
these listings. So I guess if they did that Bengie would rank 4th
overall.

Cody Ransom's current OBI% is 100%. Perhaps he should walk away now at
the top of his game.

Last time around, looking at whether either player consistently
outperforms the other in his RBI "efficiency".

> Baseball Prospectus has something they call OBI%, the percentage of
> runners on base during all of his plate appearances that he drives in.

Up-to-the-minute career OBI%

Alex Rodriguez (1582 RBI - 546 HR) / 5975 runners on 17.3%
Bengie Molina (579 RBI - 114 HR) / 2841 runners on 16.4%

In the 6 previous seasons in which both players had at least 400
plate appearances, ARod bettered Bengie in OBI% 4 times, including both
of the last two years, and trailed him only twice. If you drop the
qualifying number of plate appearances to 350, ARod comes out ahead 5
times and Bengie 3.

Through yesterday, 2008 is Bengie's 2nd best season as a regular in this
category and ARod's worst.

2007, with ranking among all players with at least 400 plate appearances:

12. Alex Rodriguez 19.2%
53. Bengie Molina 16.9%

2006

77. Alex Rodriguez 16.1%
142. Bengie Molina 14.0%

2005

25. Bengie Molina 17.5%
69. Alex Rodriguez 15.9%


2004

Bengie Molina 17.1% (had only 363 PAs)
100. Alex Rodriguez 14.8%

2003

4. Bengie Molina 20.8%
54. Alex Rodriguez 16.5%

2002

17. Alex Rodriguez 18.4%
167. Bengie Molina 12.6%

2001

33. Alex Rodriguez 18.2%
Bengie Molina 14.3% (had only 355 PAs)

2000

10. Alex Rodriguez 20.4%
118. Bengie Molina 14.9%

1999

16. Alex Rodriguez 19.5%
Bengie Molina 12.7% (had only 109 PAs)

1998

36. Alex Rodriguez 17.5%
Bengie Molina 0.0% (had only 1 PA, which
occurred with a runner on 2nd, 2 out)

1997 (pre-Molina)

88. Alex Rodriguez 15.2%

1996

9. Alex Rodriguez 20.0%

1995

Alex Rodriguez 16.9% (had only 149 PAs)

1994

Alex Rodriguez 8.0% (had only 59 PAs)

radiomd wrote:

<stats snipped>

These are cool and all, but I'm wondering how this discussion and the
measurement of OBI% factors into the broader discussion of "clutch hitting".
References have been made here over the years to the argument that clutch
hitting doesn't exist, at least in the majors. My assumption (without reading
any of the studies myself) was that sample sizes were too small to find
statistically-significant differences, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
OBI% has to have a fairly big margin of error on a year-to-year basic, as most
players won't have more than 200 PAs with RISP. So it could all be to random
variation if clutch hitting doesn't exist.

Then again, looking at A-Rod over his career, he has piled up a large number of
such PAs and has consistently ranked below where he "should" in OBI% given his
talent....Not sure if it's statistically-significant or not though.

In article <d3Wtk.8081$np7.2767@flpi149.ffdc.sbc.com>,
Jamal Bernhard <noone@nowhere.net> wrote:

> These are cool and all, but I'm wondering how this discussion and the
> measurement of OBI% factors into the broader discussion of "clutch hitting".
> References have been made here over the years to the argument that clutch
> hitting doesn't exist, at least in the majors. My assumption (without reading
> any of the studies myself) was that sample sizes were too small to find
> statistically-significant differences, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
> OBI% has to have a fairly big margin of error on a year-to-year basic, as most
> players won't have more than 200 PAs with RISP. So it could all be to random
> variation if clutch hitting doesn't exist.
>
> Then again, looking at A-Rod over his career, he has piled up a large number of
> such PAs and has consistently ranked below where he "should" in OBI% given his
> talent....Not sure if it's statistically-significant or not though.

I'm not prepared to say that ARod consistently ranks below where he
"should", because I'm not sufficiently familiar with the norms for OBI%.
There are players who have done better than ARod -- Manny Ramirez is one
of them, with significantly better career numbers hitting with men on
base than ARod's, resulting in a career OBI% of 18.4%, 1.1% higher --
but my impression of ARod's performance while I was browsing the numbers
since 1995 this morning was that it was pretty good. He has finished in
the Top 20 5 times in 13 years, and he has 4 seasons at 19% or better.

Two observations: 1) each year there are relatively few players who
exceed 20%, no more than about a dozen, and 2) very few players repeat
in the top 10 from year to year. For example, no one in last year's top
10 is in the top 10 now. Ryan Braun comes the closest, finishing #4 last
year and ranking somewhere around #20 so far this year, depending on how
many plate appearances you choose as the cutoff for this point in the
season.

It's a hassle to make progress from here, because I can't find a source
that lists any measurement of RBI efficiency, OBI% or otherwise, in a
players' season-by-season records and career totals. BP has tables of
OBI% for each player by season, and B-R has only the raw season and
career numbers by situation.

So perhaps we should do this: let's draw up a short list of players with
a reputation for clutch hitting and another with a reputation for
choking, and I can run up the numbers to see how widely they really vary
in OBI%. Would that be worthwhile?

radiomd wrote:


> I'm not prepared to say that ARod consistently ranks below where he
> "should", because I'm not sufficiently familiar with the norms for OBI%.

Well, I was just going by his league ranking. He's one of the top 10 hitters in
the league just about every year, but it looks like he is often ranked a lot
lower in OBI% based on the rankings you posted.

> So perhaps we should do this: let's draw up a short list of players with
> a reputation for clutch hitting and another with a reputation for
> choking, and I can run up the numbers to see how widely they really vary
> in OBI%. Would that be worthwhile?

It depends on the sample size. Over 8 years with 200 PAs each with RISP (total
of 1600 PAs), you might still see a career margin of error of 3% or so due to
random variation. So it would still be tough to find statistical significance I
think. It would certainly be interesting anecdotal evidence at the least, though.

In article <ao2uk.25783$Ri.23776@flpi146.ffdc.sbc.com>,
Jamal Bernhard <noone@nowhere.net> wrote:

> radiomd wrote:
>
>
> > I'm not prepared to say that ARod consistently ranks below where he
> > "should", because I'm not sufficiently familiar with the norms for OBI%.
>
> Well, I was just going by his league ranking. He's one of the top 10 hitters in
> the league just about every year, but it looks like he is often ranked a lot
> lower in OBI% based on the rankings you posted.

Yes, that's true of him. But until we know whether typical top 10
hitters are normally in the top 10 in converting RBI opportunities I
wouldn't say we have an expectation to measure his performance against.

But in the absence of that data he's still an interesting case to look
at in isolation. Here's a chart of his OBP, his SLG, and his "OBI" (RBI
- HR) as a percentage of league average, year by year. In calculating
the "league average" OBI to compare him against, I broke down his plate
appearances according to situation with regard to baserunners and
multiplied each subtotal by the numbers of baserunners driven in per PA
across the league in that situation (using B-R for the raw data). The
sum of these products is the number of OBIs we'd expect him to have if
he had performed at the league average level in each situation.

For example, an OBP/LG of 118 means that his OBP was 118% of the league
OBP.

OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
1994 70 47 59
1995 77 96 112
1996 118 142 140
1997 103 116 114
1998 106 129 126
1999 103 133 130
2000 120 136 130
2001 119 145 129
2002 118 147 128
2003 119 140 126
2004 111 118 104
2005 127 143 108
2006 115 119 105
2007 125 152 134
2008 118 139 94

In his first 5 seasons as a regular player there's clearly a strong
correlation between his SLG compared to the league and his OBI compared
to the league. But in every year since then they've diverged more than
they did in any of those earlier years, and both 2005 and 2008 are
really out of kilter.

It's the not knowing that keeps me from drawing conclusions. Perhaps the
correlation of those earlier years is just an anomaly. Or perhaps it
isn't, and given that he wasn't the "guy you can't let beat you" until
after Griffey had left Seattle and he proved he could be that guy in
2000, the following years diverge a little more because of the typical
effect of getting pitched around more often. Maybe -- but if so, what's
up with 2005 and 2008? Are those years of historical significance? Did
Babe Ruth ever have years like those? Ted Williams? Stan Musial?

> > So perhaps we should do this: let's draw up a short list of players with
> > a reputation for clutch hitting and another with a reputation for
> > choking, and I can run up the numbers to see how widely they really vary
> > in OBI%. Would that be worthwhile?
>
> It depends on the sample size. Over 8 years with 200 PAs each with RISP (total
> of 1600 PAs), you might still see a career margin of error of 3% or so due to
> random variation. So it would still be tough to find statistical significance I
> think. It would certainly be interesting anecdotal evidence at the least, though.

Yes, it would. So nominate some guys that would be interesting to look
at. I already started working on Manny, so he's in. Who else?

On Aug 29, 4:52 pm, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> In article <d3Wtk.8081$np7.2...@flpi149.ffdc.sbc.com>,
> Jamal Bernhard <no...@nowhere.net> wrote:
>
> > These are cool and all, but I'm wondering how this discussion and the
> > measurement of OBI% factors into the broader discussion of "clutch hitting".
> > References have been made here over the years to the argument that clutch
> > hitting doesn't exist, at least in the majors.

Not quite. Jonathan has frequently made a useful distinction here.
Clutch hitters are ... elusive at best (Any time I've checked for
any definition of clutch anybody has come up with I've found
players who *could* qualify. Like Paul Molitor hitting 31 points
better with runners in scoring position that overall over a
15 year period. However I've found almost precisely the same number
as you'd expect in a normal distribution -- and the effect is
always minor). Clutch hits obviously exist.

> > My assumption (without reading
> > any of the studies myself) was that sample sizes were too small to find
> > statistically-significant differences, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
> > OBI% has to have a fairly big margin of error on a year-to-year basic, as most
> > players won't have more than 200 PAs with RISP. So it could all be to random
> > variation if clutch hitting doesn't exist.
>
> > Then again, looking at A-Rod over his career, he has piled up a large number of
> > such PAs and has consistently ranked below where he "should" in OBI% given his
> > talent....Not sure if it's statistically-significant or not though.
>
> I'm not prepared to say that ARod consistently ranks below where he
> "should", because I'm not sufficiently familiar with the norms for OBI%.

I can give you a simple and reasonably accurate formula for
predicted rbi.

ABROB*(SLG*1.09-BA*.66) (ABROB is AB with runners on base)

Tom Ruane has a much more sophisticated model which takes
into account the actual distribution, but this works
quite well for most players. (works very well at the
career level where luck in the distribution of
baserunners -- the primary source of error -- tends
to even out). Standard error for a full-time player is in
the 7-8 run range (per year)

ARod's predicted career rbi total is 1585. He's
actually driven in 1582.

Yeah, he's doing poorly this year. You'd expect
108 rbi and he has 79. That's among the bigger
errors (low side) that I'm aware of.

Not the only situational stat he's doing poorly
in this year. The stat that best captures game
state is win probability added (WPA). The logic
behind it is simple enough. You can get a reasonably
accurate estimate of the probability of winning
knowing score, inning, outs and baserunners.

You calculate it before and after each plate
appearance and credit the hitter with the change.
(this is of course simplistic. You've got the
messiness of who gets credited with baserunning
for instance, but again Tom Ruane has done some
great work on this front)

Anyhow, ARod's only 4th on the Yankees in
WPA this year (behind Giambi, Damon and Abreu)

But then at least he's positive. Jeter's actually
negative. (And catcher, 2B and CF are *far* worse.
With that many passengers it's tough to see how
the Yankees could expect to contend even if
ARod was some kind of clutch god)

On Aug 28, 4:58 pm, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> In article
> <70daeac8-f3ae-41da-99e4-05c917a3a...@z11g2000prl.googlegroups.com>,
>  Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On Aug 28, 9:32 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> > > In article
> > > <9527efc2-536a-4ac7-ad82-13c161942...@j1g2000prb.googlegroups.com>,
> > >  Lord Buckeye <l_buck...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > > > At a much lower price.
>
> > > Through yesterday's games they're tied at 79.
>
> > > Bengie has driven in 65 runs in 158 plate appearances with runners in
> > > scoring position, including himself 3 times, with an OPS of .872. He has
> > > either been walked or hit by a pitch only 14 times in those situations
> > > (4 intentional walks), hit 11 sacrifice flies, and accumulated 133
> > > official at bats. Overall he's come to the plate with 334 total men on
> > > base so far this year and driven in 68 of them, just over 20%.
>
> > He's got what, 10 or 11 HR's? How has he only driven himself in 3
> > times? 133 AB's? Your 'stats' are whacked. Put down the crack pipe
> > buddy.
>
> Move the phrase "in those situations" to the start of the sentence
> and have another go at it.

So I missed the RISP part. Big deal.That wasn't my point. Point was
that at the time of my post that Bengie had one more RBI than
Rodriguez. Thats it. Some Giants fans can't take a little pleasure in
anything.

On Aug 29, 1:52 pm, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:

>
> So perhaps we should do this: let's draw up a short list of players with
> a reputation for clutch hitting and another with a reputation for
> choking, and I can run up the numbers to see how widely they really vary
> in OBI%. Would that be worthwhile?

Yes. Choking: A-Fraud is # 1. Bengie IS Mr Clutch.

In article
<8f1c002b-6559-42f9-8735-080e38a5f2ca@s50g2000hsb.googlegroups.com>,
Ron Johnson <johnson@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:

> I can give you a simple and reasonably accurate formula for
> predicted rbi.
>
> ABROB*(SLG*1.09-BA*.66) (ABROB is AB with runners on base)
>
> Tom Ruane has a much more sophisticated model which takes
> into account the actual distribution, but this works
> quite well for most players. (works very well at the
> career level where luck in the distribution of
> baserunners -- the primary source of error -- tends
> to even out). Standard error for a full-time player is in
> the 7-8 run range (per year)
>
> ARod's predicted career rbi total is 1585. He's
> actually driven in 1582.
>
> Yeah, he's doing poorly this year. You'd expect
> 108 rbi and he has 79. That's among the bigger
> errors (low side) that I'm aware of.

Thanks for that, that's helpful.

To summarize our comparison between BMoney and A-Rod:

In 2008 A-Rod has driven in far fewer runs than expected given his
opportunities and raw batting numbers. He has 80 RBIs.

Bengie has driven in more runs than expected given his opportunities and
batting numbers. He has 79.

Lord Buckeye: later today I'll post a career table for Bengie like the
one I posted for A-Rod.

In article
<93abe55b-e9f5-4c53-b478-c9591ce269f2@z11g2000prl.googlegroups.com>,
Lord Buckeye <l_buckeye@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Aug 29, 1:52 pm, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
>
> >
> > So perhaps we should do this: let's draw up a short list of players with
> > a reputation for clutch hitting and another with a reputation for
> > choking, and I can run up the numbers to see how widely they really vary
> > in OBI%. Would that be worthwhile?
>
> Yes. Choking: A-Fraud is # 1. Bengie IS Mr Clutch.

Mr. Clutch is having a very clutchy year, in fact his clutchiest ever to
this point according to my sketchy calculations:

OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
1998 0 0 0
1999 90 82 88
2000 91 93 100
2001 92 86 94
2002 83 79 83
2003 91 98 140
2004 92 93 121
2005 101 103 106
2006 94 101 93
2007 87 94 119
2008 94 101 141

I think Bengie's prone to driving in more runs than expected per total
base because of his glacial progress around the bases. Hits that would
be doubles for others are singles for him, while runners advance
according to their own abilities and not according to his. I'd guess
that without such remarkable sluggishness it's pretty difficult to
finish a season around league average for SLG yet drive in way more runs
than average.

But whatever the reason for the discrepancy between his raw batting line
and his RBIs: to this point in the season he has driven in 41% more
runners than a player performing at the league average as a run producer
in the game situations he has encountered.

A-Rod finished at 40% above league average once, in 1996. If Bengie has
a clutchy September, this will be his second time.

radiomd wrote:

> It's the not knowing that keeps me from drawing conclusions. Perhaps the
> correlation of those earlier years is just an anomaly. Or perhaps it
> isn't, and given that he wasn't the "guy you can't let beat you" until
> after Griffey had left Seattle and he proved he could be that guy in
> 2000, the following years diverge a little more because of the typical
> effect of getting pitched around more often. Maybe -- but if so, what's
> up with 2005 and 2008? Are those years of historical significance? Did
> Babe Ruth ever have years like those? Ted Williams? Stan Musial?

I totally agree that absent any further research it's hard to say what those
numbers truly mean. But they at least are interesting enough to make you think
about them.

>> It depends on the sample size. Over 8 years with 200 PAs each with RISP (total
>> of 1600 PAs), you might still see a career margin of error of 3% or so due to
>> random variation. So it would still be tough to find statistical significance I
>> think. It would certainly be interesting anecdotal evidence at the least, though.
>
> Yes, it would. So nominate some guys that would be interesting to look
> at. I already started working on Manny, so he's in. Who else?

Joe Carter comes to mind as someone who had a reputation as an RBI guy. And I'd
be interested how a hitter like Tony Gwynn ranked too. I'm sure I'll think of
some others.

On Sep 1, 1:55 am, Jamal Bernhard <no...@nowhere.net> wrote:

>
> Joe Carter comes to mind as someone who had a reputation as an RBI guy. And I'd
> be interested how a hitter like Tony Gwynn ranked too. I'm sure I'll think of
> some others.

I've done Carter and rbi. He's the biggest miss on the high side
between estimated rbi and actual rbi that I'm aware of (though I
haven't done anything like a systematic look at the issue)

He's also got 3 of the bigger single-season misses that I'm
aware of (which explains almost the entirety of the miss
at the career level.

But if this is actually important then it should manifest
itself at the team level. It doesn't. There's absolutely no
pattern between the misses in estimated rbi and misses
in team runs scored from raw counter stats.

To be clear, teams which have a guy who drove in significantly
more runs than you'd expect tend to score about as many
runs as you'd expect (sometimes higher, sometimes lower and with
no impact that I can see on the standard error). Likewise
with teams who have players who did very badly with rbi.
(I will note that this can be a career killer but that's
a completely separate issue)

As always, when you attempt to isolate the impact of
situational stats on team run scoring it turns out to
be next to nothing. Somewhere around 90% of the variation
in team runs scored is and always has been (at least since
1920 -- dead ball team runs scored is trickier to model
what with the much higher error range and the lunatic
aggression on the basepaths) explained by OBP and
SLG. Everything else is pretty much details.

To put it another way, I mentioned Molitor's rather
remarkable RISP stat. Best I can tell that had an
impact of around 29 runs in the 15 years. When
you're talking 2 runs a year from the outliers it's
just not worth worrying about.

In article <6sLuk.5391$zv7.1631@flpi143.ffdc.sbc.com>,
Jamal Bernhard <noone@nowhere.net> wrote:

> Joe Carter comes to mind as someone who had a reputation as an RBI guy.

Some review of what we're looking at and why:

1) SLG is a pretty good predictor of RBI -- the more total bases you can
accumulate, the more runners you are likely to drive in.

2) The biggest error in RBI predictions results from unequal
opportunity, e.g. significantly fewer or more opportunities -- runners
on base per PA -- than the mean.

3) We're sidestepping opportunity error here by comparing a player's
performance driving in baserunners to what a league-average hitter would
do encountering the same distribution of situations, i.e. given the same
opportunity. "League-average" means "driving in runs at the league-wide
rate for each situation".

4) The general thought is that if a player's performance driving in
runners compares to the league significantly better than his SLG
compares to the league, he has produced more from his raw batting line
than expected and might be considered in some circles to be "clutch". --
And inversely for a player whose OBI/LG is significantly lower than his
SLG/LG.

5) We're looking SLG/LG and OBI/LG for a limited group of players we
know, mainly to build up some intuition about those numbers, and also
because we'd like to luck out and capture the elusive specimen of a
player who's consistently clutch or unclutch from year to year. So far
we've seen that both A-Rod and BMoney have had up years and down years,
although many of A-Rod's better years came earlier in his career. This
year the numbers show that A-Rod is way down and BMoney is way up in
OBI/LG compared to SLG/LG -- but A-Rod is so far superior to BMoney as a
hitter that they have similar totals of baserunners driven in this year
nonetheless.

Joe Carter:

OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
1983 53 60 25
1984 94 117 116
1985 91 101 97
1986 102 126 127
1987 91 113 102
1988 97 122 120
1989 90 121 105
1990 88 99 117
1991 100 127 108
1992 94 129 131
1993 93 120 118
1994 92 121 139
1995 87 100 86
1996 87 107 116
1997 83 93 118
1998* 89 107 101


1990 was the only full season Joe Carter was a regular player in the NL.
Of course league OBI% is depressed in the NL because of the batting
performance of pitchers, more so than SLG because of the accounting of
sacrifice hits, so middle-of-the-order guys are typically going to
compare better to the league in the NL than in the AL. But does that
effect account for the bump in Joe's 1990 OBI/LG number, or was he
really more "clutchy" than usual? We'll have to run more NL lines in
order to make an informed guess.

*OBI/LG is estimated for guys who switched leagues during the season,
because I can't find individual players' situational splits broken down
by team played for or by league played in. I prorated their situational
splits by PA in each league.


> And I'd be interested how a hitter like Tony Gwynn ranked too.

I need to enter a bunch more NL splits before I can get to Gwynn.

In article
<10eb5830-d938-4eab-bfc4-788604b2aafd@56g2000hsm.googlegroups.com>,
Ron Johnson <johnson@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:

> To put it another way, I mentioned Molitor's rather
> remarkable RISP stat. Best I can tell that had an
> impact of around 29 runs in the 15 years. When
> you're talking 2 runs a year from the outliers it's
> just not worth worrying about.

Paul Molitor:

OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
1978 92 97 111
1979 111 115 107
1980 112 110 82
1981 106 90 102
1982 112 112 100
1983 102 102 66 (RISP OPS - .608)
1984 75 60 132 (remain calm, only 49 PAs total)
1985 109 101 88
1986 103 104 129
1987 131 133 148 (drove in 23% of all runners)
1988 118 116 115
1989 116 114 109
1990 105 120 115
1991 121 124 105
1992 119 120 120
1993 119 125 123
1994 119 119 123
1995 102 99 99
1996 111 105 122
1997 103 101 120
1998 98 88 116

Both the highest and lowest OBI/LG we've seen so far. Batting at or near
the top of the order, had fewer opportunities per year than the other
players we've looked at.

On Sep 5, 12:33 am, radiomd <radi...@outthere.net> wrote:
> In article
> <10eb5830-d938-4eab-bfc4-788604b2a...@56g2000hsm.googlegroups.com>,
>  Ron Johnson <john...@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:
>
> > To put it another way, I mentioned Molitor's rather
> > remarkable RISP stat. Best I can tell that had an
> > impact of around 29 runs in the 15 years. When
> > you're talking 2 runs a year from the outliers it's
> > just not worth worrying about.
>
> Paul Molitor:

One interesting thing about Molitor. For quite some time we
only had his situational stats from 1984 on (Hence the
bit about 15 years).

Turns out his situational stats were lousy in 1983 and
not particularly good before then. No idea what (if
anything) that means.

In article
<c5f4fd8d-39b5-4ed1-af54-a31d3ef94d05@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com>,
Ron Johnson <johnson@ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca> wrote:

> > Paul Molitor:
>
> Turns out his situational stats were lousy in 1983 and
> not particularly good before then. No idea what (if
> anything) that means.

Just ran into this about A-Rod's performance in the clutch, which refers
to Tom Tango's work:

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/alex-rodriguez-clutch-hitter-411/

Mr. Tango sought evidence of clutch hitting in the seasons
from 1999 to 2002, and found that Miguel Tejada and Jason
Giambi were better than average to a statistically
significant degree. That was worth about six tenths of a
win per season for each of their teams. The Yankees are
eight and a half games back in the wild-card race.

I'll add Giambi and Tejada to the list of players to work up, along with
the other two I said I'd do, Gwynn and Manny.

In article
<radiomd-0B619B.15363031082008@newsclstr03.news.prodigy.net>,
radiomd <radiomd@outthere.net> wrote:

Molina, with final 2008 numbers:

> OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
> 1998 0 0 0
> 1999 90 82 88
> 2000 91 93 100
> 2001 92 86 94
> 2002 83 79 83
> 2003 91 98 140
> 2004 92 93 121
> 2005 101 103 106
> 2006 94 101 93
> 2007 87 94 119
2008 97 108 138

Molina finished 2008 having driven in 19.3% of runners on base when he
came to the plate.

In article
<radiomd-FFDEC8.22581929082008@newsclstr03.news.prodigy.net>,
radiomd <radiomd@outthere.net> wrote:

Rodriguez, with final 2008 numbers:

> OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
> 1994 70 47 59
> 1995 77 96 112
> 1996 118 142 140
> 1997 103 116 114
> 1998 106 129 126
> 1999 103 133 130
> 2000 120 136 130
> 2001 119 145 129
> 2002 118 147 128
> 2003 119 140 126
> 2004 111 118 104
> 2005 127 143 108
> 2006 115 119 105
> 2007 125 152 134
2008 117 136 99

Rodriguez finished 2008 having driven in 15.1% of runners on base when
he came to the plate.

In article
<radiomd-14DB24.15435013092008@newsclstr03.news.prodigy.net>,
radiomd <radiomd@outthere.net> wrote:

> I'll add Giambi and Tejada to the list of players to work up, along with
> the other two I said I'd do, Gwynn and Manny.

Here's everybody left on the list, plus one.

"OBI/LG" is the number of runners on base driven in, expressed as a
percentage of the runners driven in by a theoretical hitter who drove
runners in at league average rates for each situation (runner on 1st,
runners on 1st and 2nd, etc.) and who got the same number of
opportunities in each situation.

Tony Gwynn:

OBP/LG SLG/LG OBI/LG
1982 102 101 115
1983 107 95 123
1984 125 116 136
1985 111 105 101
1986 115 119 112
1987 132 122 91
1988 117 110 154
1989 121 112 118
1990 108 105 131
1991 109 112 139
1992 114 109 109
1993 118 120 143
1994 133 132 126
1995 119 115 146
1996 118 105 125
1997 120 129 177 (drove in 24.1% of all runners)
1998 107 118 139
1999 109 107 138
2000 104 99 111
2001 113 105 133

Career OPS: .847
Men on: .891
RISP: .923



Manny Ramirez:

1993 59 74 69
1994 104 120 119
1995 117 131 133
1996 114 131 108
1997 122 126 96
1998 111 138 132
1999 127 151 138 (drove in 23.9% of all runners)
2000 131 157 120
2001 121 142 121
2002 136 152 139
2003 128 137 96 (compare to A-Rod 2008)
2004 117 141 126
2005 117 140 131
2006 129 141 116
2007 115 116 111
2008 AL 118 126 120
2008 NL 153 177 152


Jason Giambi:

1995 106 93 98
1996 101 108 113
1997 106 115 120
1998 113 113 116
1999 121 126 129
2000 136 146 153
2001 143 154 132
2002 131 141 134
2003 123 123 94
2004 101 87 94
2005 133 126 104
2006 121 128 110
2007 105 102 83
2008 111 120 95


Miguel Tejada:

1997 71 78 100
1998 87 89 95
1999 93 97 100
2000 100 108 121
2001 97 111 123
2002 107 119 139
2003 101 110 119
2004 106 123 133
2005 106 121 106
2006 112 114 112
2007 106 104 116
2008 93 98 102

Tom Tango found that as clutch hitters Giambi and Tejada "were better
than average to a statistically significant degree" in the years
1999-2002, which is why they're listed here.


Unsigned But Not Retired Hitter of Recent Memory:

1986 99 106 95
1987 97 117 79
1988 115 130 99
1989 109 113 96
1990 123 142 142
1991 126 133 137
1992 140 164 127
1993 136 164 125
1994 125 151 117
1995 127 137 133
1996 136 146 138
1997 130 138 92
1998 129 143 121
1999 111 139 116
2000 125 154 111
2001 152 196 128
2002 171 189 129
2003 155 174 91
2004 179 186 105
2005 119 156 85
2006 132 123 117
2007 140 130 89

Walked in 39% of his plate appearances with runners on base in 2002 and
2003 and 49% in 2004, leaving him only 166, 157, and 155 at bats with
runners on base in those years, respectively.