Robin Miller
08-21-2008, 08:06 PM
April 14, 2008: Game 1 of the Ellis Era
Posted by Adam Lauridsen on August 19th, 2008 at 1:13 am
Welcome to the slow, slow days of August. It may have been weeks since we
had any real Warriors news of note, but the wait until training camp is
slowly slipping away. The start of training camp carries special
significance this year - even for those beyond the poor basketball-addicted
souls reading this blog - since it'll be the first glimpse of the retooled
Warriors. While we'll have to wait to see how Maggette, Turiaf, and
Randolph add up in the Warriors' equation, we did gain one glimpse last year
of how the post-Davis Warriors might perform.
I don't intend to scratch a nearly healed scab with this post, but on April
14, 2008 - the Warriors' second to last game of the season - Don Nelson
benched Baron Davis in the second half against the Phoenix Suns. At the
half, the Warriors were down 57 to 71 in a must win game against a Western
playoff team. The debate remains open as to why Nelson benched Davis (Slyly
pushing Davis to opt out? Punishing the point guard for his birthday
partying the night before? Or merely responding to Davis' lackluster
performance during the first 24 minutes?). Regardless of the reason, the
Warriors logged the final 24 meaningful minutes of their season without
Davis on the court. The future was early, and at least in this limited
instanced, didn't look too shabby. The Warriors stormed back to outscore
the Suns in the second half 59 to 51.
Given that I'm extrapolating from less than a full game, I'm very hesitant
to draw any sort of conclusions from the second half numbers. For what it's
worth, however, here's what stood out:
* Assists, But Not from Monta - While Ellis finished the game with 6
assists, 4 of those came in the first half with Davis still playing. Of the
Warriors' 9 second half assists (compared to 12 in the first half), 3 came
from Jackson and 4 from Azubuike. The numbers are a good reminder not to
overlook Kelenna's versatile skills in Nelson's offense. He was a scorer
early in the season when Jackson was out, a rebounder through much of the
year when the Warriors' lacked size up front, and in the game against the
Suns he was a passer, helping lead the team to a rousing comeback. I expect
him to be a constant member of the Warriors' rotation this year despite the
glut of swingmen on the team at the moment.
* Jackson's Role - I've long been a defender of Stephen Jackson's
offensive potential, despite his ups and downs. The Suns game provided a
perfect example of why Jackson can be such a powerful weapon at the right
moment. After scoring only 2 points in the first half, Jackson exploded in
the second with the extra touches created by Davis' absence, ending up
scoring 21 points as the Warriors fought from behind. While this worked for
Jackson in this instance, the more we rely on him for these types of
offensive nights, the more volatile our team's offensive performance will
become. This is where the Maggette signing may pay dividends. Rather than
sliding Davis' shots and points completely over to Jackson, who was just as
inconsistent (if not more so) than Davis, Maggette steps in to provide
predicable, efficient offense. With the Warriors' added depth, we should
hopefully look to Jackson to do less, not more, in terms of scoring, freeing
him up to focus on defense and creating looks for others. I'm sure Jackson
will be up for whatever task Nelson sends his way, but I'm guessing Nellie
won't ask for Jackson to take over every night in the 08-09 season as he did
against the Suns in the second half.
* More Writing on Al's Wall - Al Harrington didn't exactly step up when
the Warriors needed help against the Suns, scoring only 6 points (3 in the
second half - the first 3 scored after the break). During that second half
in which Harrington only hit one shot, Ellis scored 12 points, Azubuike 10
and Biedrins 8. If you wanted to project these numbers over an entire game,
it's not hard to imagine Ellis scoring 24 points and Biedrins going for 16.
Azubuike is unlikely to go for 20, given his limited minutes, but Maggette
should be able to deliver that amount taking the lion's share of minutes at
the three. Just as in the minutes projections, it's hard to see in terms of
scoring where Harrington (or Wright or Turiaf, for that matter) get their
shots. Wright and Turiaf can score off put-backs and around-the-basket
slop, but the same can't be said for Harrington. If April 14 holds to be a
predictor of things to come, Al should brace for a difficult year.
* Defense - It's unfair to blame Davis' presence in the first half for
the Suns' 71 point explosion, particularly when so many of the points came
from the frontcourt. Still, Steve Nash scored 9 of his 13 in the first half
and all 4 scored in the second half were from free throws. My theory that
the Warriors engaged in addition by subtraction on defense with Davis'
departure may turn out to be nothing more than a pipe dream, but there's no
dismissing how poorly Davis' looked down opposing guards during the second
half of the Warriors' season. If Ellis, Jackson and Azubuike can play even
slightly better man-to-man defense, the Warriors will hopefully end fewer
first halves with 70+ points on the board for their opponents.
Again, I can't stress how small the sample size is for these observations.
You can't tell much, if anything, from one game, particularly given the
tense circumstances surrounding the Warriors / Suns match-up last year.
Still, for those worried that the Warriors' will completely derail without
Davis, the second half of the Suns game provides evidence that the team can
excel with Ellis, Jackson and others leading the charge. Ultimately, the
Davis-less Warriors' couldn't complete the comeback to take home a win and
their playoff dreams died as a result of their failure. For 2008-09,
however, the team hopefully won't be spotting opponents 14 point leads each
night.
RM: 125 comments already:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2008/08/19/april-14-2008-game-1-of-the-ellis-era/
Posted by Adam Lauridsen on August 19th, 2008 at 1:13 am
Welcome to the slow, slow days of August. It may have been weeks since we
had any real Warriors news of note, but the wait until training camp is
slowly slipping away. The start of training camp carries special
significance this year - even for those beyond the poor basketball-addicted
souls reading this blog - since it'll be the first glimpse of the retooled
Warriors. While we'll have to wait to see how Maggette, Turiaf, and
Randolph add up in the Warriors' equation, we did gain one glimpse last year
of how the post-Davis Warriors might perform.
I don't intend to scratch a nearly healed scab with this post, but on April
14, 2008 - the Warriors' second to last game of the season - Don Nelson
benched Baron Davis in the second half against the Phoenix Suns. At the
half, the Warriors were down 57 to 71 in a must win game against a Western
playoff team. The debate remains open as to why Nelson benched Davis (Slyly
pushing Davis to opt out? Punishing the point guard for his birthday
partying the night before? Or merely responding to Davis' lackluster
performance during the first 24 minutes?). Regardless of the reason, the
Warriors logged the final 24 meaningful minutes of their season without
Davis on the court. The future was early, and at least in this limited
instanced, didn't look too shabby. The Warriors stormed back to outscore
the Suns in the second half 59 to 51.
Given that I'm extrapolating from less than a full game, I'm very hesitant
to draw any sort of conclusions from the second half numbers. For what it's
worth, however, here's what stood out:
* Assists, But Not from Monta - While Ellis finished the game with 6
assists, 4 of those came in the first half with Davis still playing. Of the
Warriors' 9 second half assists (compared to 12 in the first half), 3 came
from Jackson and 4 from Azubuike. The numbers are a good reminder not to
overlook Kelenna's versatile skills in Nelson's offense. He was a scorer
early in the season when Jackson was out, a rebounder through much of the
year when the Warriors' lacked size up front, and in the game against the
Suns he was a passer, helping lead the team to a rousing comeback. I expect
him to be a constant member of the Warriors' rotation this year despite the
glut of swingmen on the team at the moment.
* Jackson's Role - I've long been a defender of Stephen Jackson's
offensive potential, despite his ups and downs. The Suns game provided a
perfect example of why Jackson can be such a powerful weapon at the right
moment. After scoring only 2 points in the first half, Jackson exploded in
the second with the extra touches created by Davis' absence, ending up
scoring 21 points as the Warriors fought from behind. While this worked for
Jackson in this instance, the more we rely on him for these types of
offensive nights, the more volatile our team's offensive performance will
become. This is where the Maggette signing may pay dividends. Rather than
sliding Davis' shots and points completely over to Jackson, who was just as
inconsistent (if not more so) than Davis, Maggette steps in to provide
predicable, efficient offense. With the Warriors' added depth, we should
hopefully look to Jackson to do less, not more, in terms of scoring, freeing
him up to focus on defense and creating looks for others. I'm sure Jackson
will be up for whatever task Nelson sends his way, but I'm guessing Nellie
won't ask for Jackson to take over every night in the 08-09 season as he did
against the Suns in the second half.
* More Writing on Al's Wall - Al Harrington didn't exactly step up when
the Warriors needed help against the Suns, scoring only 6 points (3 in the
second half - the first 3 scored after the break). During that second half
in which Harrington only hit one shot, Ellis scored 12 points, Azubuike 10
and Biedrins 8. If you wanted to project these numbers over an entire game,
it's not hard to imagine Ellis scoring 24 points and Biedrins going for 16.
Azubuike is unlikely to go for 20, given his limited minutes, but Maggette
should be able to deliver that amount taking the lion's share of minutes at
the three. Just as in the minutes projections, it's hard to see in terms of
scoring where Harrington (or Wright or Turiaf, for that matter) get their
shots. Wright and Turiaf can score off put-backs and around-the-basket
slop, but the same can't be said for Harrington. If April 14 holds to be a
predictor of things to come, Al should brace for a difficult year.
* Defense - It's unfair to blame Davis' presence in the first half for
the Suns' 71 point explosion, particularly when so many of the points came
from the frontcourt. Still, Steve Nash scored 9 of his 13 in the first half
and all 4 scored in the second half were from free throws. My theory that
the Warriors engaged in addition by subtraction on defense with Davis'
departure may turn out to be nothing more than a pipe dream, but there's no
dismissing how poorly Davis' looked down opposing guards during the second
half of the Warriors' season. If Ellis, Jackson and Azubuike can play even
slightly better man-to-man defense, the Warriors will hopefully end fewer
first halves with 70+ points on the board for their opponents.
Again, I can't stress how small the sample size is for these observations.
You can't tell much, if anything, from one game, particularly given the
tense circumstances surrounding the Warriors / Suns match-up last year.
Still, for those worried that the Warriors' will completely derail without
Davis, the second half of the Suns game provides evidence that the team can
excel with Ellis, Jackson and others leading the charge. Ultimately, the
Davis-less Warriors' couldn't complete the comeback to take home a win and
their playoff dreams died as a result of their failure. For 2008-09,
however, the team hopefully won't be spotting opponents 14 point leads each
night.
RM: 125 comments already:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2008/08/19/april-14-2008-game-1-of-the-ellis-era/