Ken Berger of Newsday

James Dolan has opened the floor to investors, allowing them the kind
of public discourse with him that writers who cover his basketball
team rarely get.

Speculation has been simmering for weeks that the Dolan family
business, Cablevision, might be willing to sell Madison Square Garden,
the Knicks, and Rangers, as a way to placate shareholders and
investors unhappy with the company's flagging stock price. Knicks
fans, unhappy with Dolan for reasons related to his flat-lining
basketball team, no doubt rejoiced upon hearing the news.

Not so fast, though. Dolan's gesture to investors - allowing them to
voice concerns during a "listening tour" last week - seems to have
been little more than a head fake. People knowledgeable about MSG in
particular, and the sale of sports franchises in general, tell Newsday
that it's premature to run out onto Seventh Avenue traffic and
celebrate Dolan's departure from the Garden of Ills.

"I would say the most likely buyer is probably some group headed by
Jim Dolan, personally, because Jim seems to get a lot of pleasure out
of those particular assets," an expert in the field of sports and
media transactions told Newsday.

"Those assets are unique, and if you enjoy owning and running them,
you're not going to get another shot at it. So I'm not sure why you
would sell."

Dolan's efforts to take Cablevision private failed last year when top
investors such as Mario Gabelli snubbed their noses at the proposed
$36.26- per-share price. Gabelli was among the investors who took
Dolan up on his invitation to propose other strategic options.

"Everyone wanted to see a spinoff of MSG," said Gabelli, whose Gamco
Investors Inc. owns about eight percent of Cablevision shares. Last
month, Cablevision purchased Newsday for $650 million, an acquisition
that was met with skepticism from shareholders, investors, and Stephon
Marbury, who must be scratching his bald head at the notion of a
newspaper being worth 30 times his salary.

On Friday, it was disclosed that Harbinger Capital Management - which
has a reputation for trying to bully tightly held companies - had
acquired a 4.9 percent stake in Cablevision. To what end remains to be
seen, but few analysts, and even fewer insiders, believe Dolan will
seriously consider loosening his grip on MSG and its teams. If
anything, Dolan may seek to broker a backdoor spinoff of the sports
properties to himself, which would satisfy investors and Dolan's ego
at the same time.

"It's all about price," the sports transaction expert said, speaking
on condition of anonymity because he may very well be called upon to
broker such a deal. The Knicks and Rangers, he estimated, are worth
upward of $1 billion. With the building, which would have to be
included to maximize revenue, he said the total price would be close
to $4 billion - or almost as much as a courtside seat.

Cablevision brokering a backroom deal to spin off MSG and the teams to
a Dolan-led group would fit the company's long-held preference for
secrecy. If the bidding were opened up to outside investors, the sale
would have to be publicly vetted - a process Dolan may find even more
distasteful than, say, making the NBA playoffs.

It is difficult for outsiders to place a dollar value on MSG and the
teams because such revenue streams aren't broken out in Cablevision's
public filings. As-is, MSG would command at least $750 million by
itself, according to Jim Grinstead of Revenues from Sports Venues. And
that doesn't include a $500 million renovation planned for the
40-year-old building, which despite its location and cachet is one of
the most outdated arenas in the NBA and NHL.

Why so much? Even in a building with narrow corridors, a dysfunctional
elevator, and sketchy sightlines, an MSG luxury suite for both teams
sells for $450,000 a year, Grinstead said. There are 89 of them (do
the math), and more will be added with the renovation.

"If Cablevision spends the money to upgrade the building, that makes
it more of an attractive property to someone," Grinstead said. "But
there are some structural aspects of that building that just can't be
solved."

Selling the Garden and teams to someone other than Dolan presents two
problems. First, the field of candidates willing and able to spend $4
billion on a dilapidated building and two sports teams could fit in
Nate Robinson's Nikes. It would have to be someone like Philip
Anschutz, a multibillionaire who owns the Staples Center, Lakers,
Kings, and a diverse media portfolio.

Second, some investors may prefer selling all or part of Cablevision's
Rainbow Media group, whose worth has been estimated at $4.5 billion.
Cable networks have better revenue potential, it seems, than a
basketball team poised to pay Marbury $22 million next season; perhaps
simply to go away and sign with an Italian team.

Nobody ever knows for sure what Dolan will do. But the odds are
overwhelming that he will remain lord of the Garden long after Marbury
has worn out his welcome in Milan.