"Leon Lussier" <RedSoxTres8@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:8011-4874472A-1698@storefull-3313.bay.webtv.net...
> That lead-off hitter for the Twins in the ninth inning had a great at
> bat. He fouled off all those pitches and then he got a hit out of it at
> the end. I don't think it was Papelbon's fault. Just a great at bat
> from the hitter.

An opinion from a Twins fan: no, Papelbon doesn't quite look as invincible
as he's seemed in the past, of course I've only seen him in these few games
HTH between Minny and Boston and I watched the end of that Sunday night game
so it's a small sample size that happens to include a game he entered with a
lead vs. the Twins where he ended up with the BS and a loss to the Yankees,
so that's probably coloring my thinking a bit more than it should.

Anyway, the lead-off hitter in the 9th was Nick Punto... he's been kicked
around by Twins fans because he was just awful (I mean to a historical
degree, no exagerration) last year at the plate... he just looked totally
clueless up there. All the stuff y'all pile on Varitek this season because
he's forgotten how to hit? That's what we were giving Punto last season.

So for Papelbon to lose a (what was it?) 11-pitch AB to him is probably not
a good sign. On the other hand, Punto has really been coming around this
year and I don't know if he was hurt last season or what but from a Twins
standpoint that AB was a very encouraging sign... I'll leave it to you to
decide how much of it is Punto back on track and how much is Paps losing
some of his stuff.

brink

"brink" <brinknospam@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:6dj6i0F2pp7bU4@mid.individual.net...
>
> "Leon Lussier" <RedSoxTres8@webtv.net> wrote in message
> news:8011-4874472A-1698@storefull-3313.bay.webtv.net...
>> That lead-off hitter for the Twins in the ninth inning had a great at
>> bat. He fouled off all those pitches and then he got a hit out of it at
>> the end. I don't think it was Papelbon's fault. Just a great at bat
>> from the hitter.
>
> An opinion from a Twins fan: no, Papelbon doesn't quite look as invincible
> as he's seemed in the past, of course I've only seen him in these few
> games HTH between Minny and Boston and I watched the end of that Sunday
> night game so it's a small sample size that happens to include a game he
> entered with a lead vs. the Twins where he ended up with the BS and a loss
> to the Yankees, so that's probably coloring my thinking a bit more than it
> should.
>
> Anyway, the lead-off hitter in the 9th was Nick Punto... he's been kicked
> around by Twins fans because he was just awful (I mean to a historical
> degree, no exagerration) last year at the plate... he just looked totally
> clueless up there. All the stuff y'all pile on Varitek this season
> because he's forgotten how to hit? That's what we were giving Punto last
> season.
>
> So for Papelbon to lose a (what was it?) 11-pitch AB to him is probably
> not a good sign. On the other hand, Punto has really been coming around
> this year and I don't know if he was hurt last season or what but from a
> Twins standpoint that AB was a very encouraging sign... I'll leave it to
> you to decide how much of it is Punto back on track and how much is Paps
> losing some of his stuff.
>
>

Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are looking to
trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your analysis is a
riot.

And hey, were you guys not screaming about Bass being in there on Monday
night and how the manager is an idiot for not having Guerrier in there? How
did that work out last night?

John Poutre wrote:
And hey, were you guys not screaming about Bass being in there on Monday
night and how the manager is an idiot for not having Guerrier in there?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Umm, no, we were clamouring for Crain.

John Poutre wrote:

>
> Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are looking to
> trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your analysis is a
> riot.
>

I'm sure that the Sox aren't looking to trade him but Papelbon, like the
rest of the Sox bullpen, has been off this season, wouldn't you say?

--
"I think you should strangle it quickly before it starts trying to make
friends with us."

"Pearly Soames" <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote in message
news:e%2dk.6$sL6.2@newsfe07.lga...
> John Poutre wrote:
>
>>
>> Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are looking
>> to trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your analysis is
>> a riot.
>>
>
> I'm sure that the Sox aren't looking to trade him but Papelbon, like the
> rest of the Sox bullpen, has been off this season, wouldn't you say?
>

I don't disagree with that but to say that after that 1 at bat, it looks
like he has issues, is silly. It was just a good at bat by Punto and even
at that, if Crisp had brains, it's a single.

Pearly Soames wrote:
> John Poutre wrote:
>
>>
>> Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are
>> looking to trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your
>> analysis is a riot.
>>
>
> I'm sure that the Sox aren't looking to trade him but Papelbon, like
> the rest of the Sox bullpen, has been off this season, wouldn't you
> say?

Off compared to *what*? His last 2 seasons records? I guess. I think it
might just have been a little unrealistic to expect him to repeat that.

Here's where he stands near the midway point...

2.27 ERA....27 saves....50 strikeouts, in 39 innings....WHIP 0.91

Now more inherited runners have scored and it seems he has given up more fly
balls, but he is also being used more. He's at a pace to throw over 80
innings. I think that bears watching. Still a pretty damn dominant pitcher
in my mind.

On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 08:51:28 -0400, "John Poutre"
<mehatespam@gmail.com> wrote:

>"brink" <brinknospam@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>news:6dj6i0F2pp7bU4@mid.individual.net...
>>
>> "Leon Lussier" <RedSoxTres8@webtv.net> wrote in message
>> news:8011-4874472A-1698@storefull-3313.bay.webtv.net...
>>> That lead-off hitter for the Twins in the ninth inning had a great at
>>> bat. He fouled off all those pitches and then he got a hit out of it at
>>> the end. I don't think it was Papelbon's fault. Just a great at bat
>>> from the hitter.
>>
>> An opinion from a Twins fan: no, Papelbon doesn't quite look as invincible
>> as he's seemed in the past, of course I've only seen him in these few
>> games HTH between Minny and Boston and I watched the end of that Sunday
>> night game so it's a small sample size that happens to include a game he
>> entered with a lead vs. the Twins where he ended up with the BS and a loss
>> to the Yankees, so that's probably coloring my thinking a bit more than it
>> should.
>>
>> Anyway, the lead-off hitter in the 9th was Nick Punto... he's been kicked
>> around by Twins fans because he was just awful (I mean to a historical
>> degree, no exagerration) last year at the plate... he just looked totally
>> clueless up there. All the stuff y'all pile on Varitek this season
>> because he's forgotten how to hit? That's what we were giving Punto last
>> season.
>>
>> So for Papelbon to lose a (what was it?) 11-pitch AB to him is probably
>> not a good sign. On the other hand, Punto has really been coming around
>> this year and I don't know if he was hurt last season or what but from a
>> Twins standpoint that AB was a very encouraging sign... I'll leave it to
>> you to decide how much of it is Punto back on track and how much is Paps
>> losing some of his stuff.
>>
>>
>
>Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are looking to
>trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your analysis is a
>riot.

I think brink's analysis is right on target. Papelbon is still a top
notch closer, no doubt...and I don't think brink was disputing
that...but, this season Papelbon hasn't looked as intimidating
as he has in previous seasons.

With all of the save opportunities the Red Sox give Papelbon,
I'm sure they are just fine with his current ERA of 2.27 and a
WHIP of .91....that is skill, no doubt about it. Hell, he has 27
saves out of 31 opportunities...and there's nothing bad about
that at all.

It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
just dumb luck, IMO.

>And hey, were you guys not screaming about Bass being in there on Monday
>night and how the manager is an idiot for not having Guerrier in there? How
>did that work out last night?

Guerrier had a tough night last night...but then again, that middle
order for the Red Sox has given many pitchers problems, so it's
not a real shocker that they got away with a few on Guerrier last
night.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

"John Poutre" <mehatespam@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:j%3dk.20006$%q.11704@newsfe24.lga...
> "Pearly Soames" <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote in message
> news:e%2dk.6$sL6.2@newsfe07.lga...
>> John Poutre wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are looking
>>> to trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your analysis is
>>> a riot.
>>>
>>
>> I'm sure that the Sox aren't looking to trade him but Papelbon, like the
>> rest of the Sox bullpen, has been off this season, wouldn't you say?
>>
>
> I don't disagree with that but to say that after that 1 at bat, it looks
> like he has issues, is silly. It was just a good at bat by Punto and even
> at that, if Crisp had brains, it's a single.

I made my disclaimers clear:

"An opinion from a Twins fan: no, Papelbon doesn't quite look as invincible
as he's seemed in the past, of course I've only seen him in these few games
HTH between Minny and Boston and I watched the end of that Sunday night game
so it's a small sample size that happens to include a game he entered with a
lead vs. the Twins where he ended up with the BS and a loss to the Yankees,
so that's probably coloring my thinking a bit more than it should."

Again, I've seen him pitch in about 5 games this season and he's taken the
loss in 2 of them.... I'm just commenting on what I've seen, nothing more,
nothing less. I don't claim that 5 games is enough to make more than
cursory observations and it's too small a sample to conclude anything
meaningful other than he's been human from what I've seen. He's racked up
quite a few saves this year so obviously he's gotten it done most of the
time otherwise.

brink

"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:pNWdnc4EHdiofunVnZ2dnUVZ_hninZ2d@comcast.com...
> Pearly Soames wrote:
>> John Poutre wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> Yeah, I am sure after they got that 1 hit off Paps, the Sox are
>>> looking to trade him for a real closer. Too funny. Seriously, your
>>> analysis is a riot.
>>>
>>
>> I'm sure that the Sox aren't looking to trade him but Papelbon, like
>> the rest of the Sox bullpen, has been off this season, wouldn't you
>> say?
>
> Off compared to *what*? His last 2 seasons records? I guess. I think it
> might just have been a little unrealistic to expect him to repeat that.
>
> Here's where he stands near the midway point...
>
> 2.27 ERA....27 saves....50 strikeouts, in 39 innings....WHIP 0.91
>
> Now more inherited runners have scored and it seems he has given up more
> fly balls, but he is also being used more. He's at a pace to throw over
> 80 innings. I think that bears watching. Still a pretty damn dominant
> pitcher in my mind.

You're right, his peripherals look great... I think I've just caught him in
the wrong games.

Joe Nathan took the loss in 2 games vs. the (then) Devil Rays last year, I'm
guessing TB fans thought he looked pretty hittable...

brink

"S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...

> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
> just dumb luck, IMO.


I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his 16 saves
out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
matter...it's the W/L.

On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
<BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote:

>
>"S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>
>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>
>
>I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his 16 saves
>out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
>matter...it's the W/L.

The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>
> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>
> >"S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> >news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>
> >> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
> >> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
> >> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
> >> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
> >> just dumb luck, IMO.
>
> >I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him?  Is his 16 saves
> >out of 17 chances not good enough for you?  The ERA and WHIP don't
> >matter...it's the W/L.
>
> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>
> - Scott Smith:          scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>   MySpace:              http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I think
he exploded while we were having the conversation.

brianj

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
<firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:

>On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>
>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>
>> >"S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>> >news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>
>> >> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>> >> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>> >> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>> >> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>> >> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>
>> >I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him?  Is his 16 saves
>> >out of 17 chances not good enough for you?  The ERA and WHIP don't
>> >matter...it's the W/L.
>>
>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>
>> - Scott Smith:          scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>   MySpace:              http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>
>You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
>string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
>said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
>Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
>numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I think
>he exploded while we were having the conversation.

And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.

I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
will be trying to make a run for the division.

Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

"S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>
>>On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>
>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> >"S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>> >news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>
>>> >> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>> >> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>> >> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>> >> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>> >> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>
>>> >I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his 16
>>> >saves
>>> >out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
>>> >matter...it's the W/L.
>>>
>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>
>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>
>>You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
>>string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
>>said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
>>Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
>>numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I think
>>he exploded while we were having the conversation.
>
> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>
> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>
> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.


You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going off of
ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to get anybody's
attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17 saves.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:31:27 -0400, "Hosmerica"
<BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote:

>
>"S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>
>>>On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>
>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> >"S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>> >news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>
>>>> >> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>> >> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>> >> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>> >> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>> >> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>
>>>> >I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his 16
>>>> >saves
>>>> >out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
>>>> >matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>
>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>
>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>
>>>You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
>>>string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
>>>said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
>>>Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
>>>numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I think
>>>he exploded while we were having the conversation.
>>
>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>
>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>
>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>
>
>You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going off of
>ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to get anybody's
>attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17 saves.


And it's still because of dumb luck, not skill.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

Hosmerica wrote:
> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>
>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>
>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>
>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his
>>>>> 16 saves
>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
>>>>> matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>
>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>
>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>
>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
>>> string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
>>> said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
>>> Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
>>> numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I
>>> think he exploded while we were having the conversation.
>>
>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>
>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>
>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>
>
> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
> saves.

Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS 4-0...leading me
to think he may have entered a lot of tie games...clearly he's not being
used as exclusively in save situations. I'll say this for him...he has only
allowed 5 inherited runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.

"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:vM6dneiOh7GOxuvVnZ2dnUVZ_ofinZ2d@comcast.com...
> Hosmerica wrote:
>> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>>
>>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>>
>>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is his
>>>>>> 16 saves
>>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP don't
>>>>>> matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>>
>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>
>>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>>
>>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty incredible
>>>> string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very scary WH/IP. I
>>>> said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only cared about saves.
>>>> Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out that with those
>>>> numbers, it was only a matter of time before LaTroy exploded. I
>>>> think he exploded while we were having the conversation.
>>>
>>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>>
>>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>>
>>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>>
>>
>> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
>> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
>> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
>> saves.
>
> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS 4-0...leading me
> to think he may have entered a lot of tie games...clearly he's not being
> used as exclusively in save situations. I'll say this for him...he has
> only allowed 5 inherited runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.


Well, Jones has had half the save opportunities as Pap.

Hosmerica wrote:
> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:vM6dneiOh7GOxuvVnZ2dnUVZ_ofinZ2d@comcast.com...
>> Hosmerica wrote:
>>> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>>>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is
>>>>>>> his 16 saves
>>>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP
>>>>>>> don't matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb
>>>>>> luck this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>>>
>>>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty
>>>>> incredible string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very
>>>>> scary WH/IP. I said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only
>>>>> cared about saves. Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out
>>>>> that with those numbers, it was only a matter of time before
>>>>> LaTroy exploded. I think he exploded while we were having the
>>>>> conversation.
>>>>
>>>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>>>
>>>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>>>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>>>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>>>
>>>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>>>
>>>
>>> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
>>> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
>>> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
>>> saves.
>>
>> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS
>> 4-0...leading me to think he may have entered a lot of tie
>> games...clearly he's not being used as exclusively in save
>> situations. I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5 inherited
>> runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.
>
>
> Well, Jones has had half the save opportunities as Pap.

Well...yeah...that was my point. Why was that? Does another pitcher on the
staff share the closing duties? Or does he fill that illusory role of "ace
reliever"?

On 7/10/08 3:27 PM, in article idmdnVikqqcx_-vVnZ2dnUVZ_jadnZ2d@comcast.com,
"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote:

> Hosmerica wrote:
>> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>> news:vM6dneiOh7GOxuvVnZ2dnUVZ_ofinZ2d@comcast.com...
>>> Hosmerica wrote:
>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>>>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>>>>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is
>>>>>>>> his 16 saves
>>>>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP
>>>>>>>> don't matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb
>>>>>>> luck this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty
>>>>>> incredible string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very
>>>>>> scary WH/IP. I said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only
>>>>>> cared about saves. Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out
>>>>>> that with those numbers, it was only a matter of time before
>>>>>> LaTroy exploded. I think he exploded while we were having the
>>>>>> conversation.
>>>>>
>>>>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>>>>
>>>>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>>>>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>>>>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>>>>
>>>>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
>>>> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
>>>> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
>>>> saves.
>>>
>>> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS
>>> 4-0...leading me to think he may have entered a lot of tie
>>> games...clearly he's not being used as exclusively in save
>>> situations. I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5 inherited
>>> runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.

Papelbon has allowed 0 out of 14 inherited runners to score. I think you
are confused about the stats.

"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:idmdnVikqqcx_-vVnZ2dnUVZ_jadnZ2d@comcast.com...
> Hosmerica wrote:
>> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>> news:vM6dneiOh7GOxuvVnZ2dnUVZ_ofinZ2d@comcast.com...
>>> Hosmerica wrote:
>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>>>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>>>>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is
>>>>>>>> his 16 saves
>>>>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP
>>>>>>>> don't matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb
>>>>>>> luck this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty
>>>>>> incredible string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very
>>>>>> scary WH/IP. I said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only
>>>>>> cared about saves. Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out
>>>>>> that with those numbers, it was only a matter of time before
>>>>>> LaTroy exploded. I think he exploded while we were having the
>>>>>> conversation.
>>>>>
>>>>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>>>>
>>>>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>>>>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>>>>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>>>>
>>>>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
>>>> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
>>>> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
>>>> saves.
>>>
>>> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS
>>> 4-0...leading me to think he may have entered a lot of tie
>>> games...clearly he's not being used as exclusively in save
>>> situations. I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5 inherited
>>> runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.
>>
>>
>> Well, Jones has had half the save opportunities as Pap.
>
> Well...yeah...that was my point. Why was that? Does another pitcher on
> the staff share the closing duties? Or does he fill that illusory role of
> "ace reliever"?


I really have no idea. Maybe the Tigers only put him in against teaams they
think they can beat and/or when the Tigers are up by at least two. I really
haven't been a very big fan of his (he makes games waaaaaay to interesting
for my liking), but 16 out of 17 is pretty damn good.

John Mann wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS
>>>> 4-0...leading me to think he may have entered a lot of tie
>>>> games...clearly he's not being used as exclusively in save
>>>> situations. I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5
>>>> inherited runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.
>
> Papelbon has allowed 0 out of 14 inherited runners to score. I think
> you are confused about the stats.

Yup...right you are. Read that wrong. I could have sworn he had allowed at
least one to score...

Hosmerica wrote:
> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>> Well...yeah...that was my point. Why was that? Does another
>> pitcher on the staff share the closing duties? Or does he fill that
>> illusory role of "ace reliever"?
>
>
> I really have no idea. Maybe the Tigers only put him in against
> teaams they think they can beat and/or when the Tigers are up by at
> least two. I really haven't been a very big fan of his (he makes
> games waaaaaay to interesting for my liking), but 16 out of 17 is
> pretty damn good.

I just took a glance at his bullpen mate's stats and could find only 4 other
saves out of 8 opportunities total, among them.

For those who claim the closer job is over-rated...Oki has 1 save and 6
blown...Delcarmen is 0 for 2...Hansen 1 for 3...Lopez 0 for 1...Timlin is 1
for 1.

"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> writes:

> For those who claim the closer job is over-rated...Oki has 1 save and
> 6 blown...Delcarmen is 0 for 2...Hansen 1 for 3...Lopez 0 for
> 1...Timlin is 1 for 1.

The only interesting numbers there are the blown saves. Setup men get a
lot of chances to blow saves, but very few to complete them.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:46:40 -0400, "Hosmerica"
<BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote:

>
>"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>news:idmdnVikqqcx_-vVnZ2dnUVZ_jadnZ2d@comcast.com...
>> Hosmerica wrote:
>>> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>>> news:vM6dneiOh7GOxuvVnZ2dnUVZ_ofinZ2d@comcast.com...
>>>> Hosmerica wrote:
>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>> news:qjgc74p3d5eh1hi06lvfjahqjnvkrd9ski@4ax.com...
>>>>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:36:36 -0700 (PDT), brianj
>>>>>> <firstpres@turtlecreek.net> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jul 10, 9:54 am, S. Smith <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400, "Hosmerica"
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>>> news:01v974dpgtcjhkcutldc8br73s25pgk09i@4ax.com...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> It's not like he's a Todd Jones, who gets about half the save
>>>>>>>>>> opportunities that Papelbon does and has an ERA of 5.08
>>>>>>>>>> with a WHIP of 1.54. That Jones has managed 16 saves
>>>>>>>>>> this season, with an atrocious ERA and WHIP like that, is
>>>>>>>>>> just dumb luck, IMO.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I'm no Jones aplogist, but what more do you expect of him? Is
>>>>>>>>> his 16 saves
>>>>>>>>> out of 17 chances not good enough for you? The ERA and WHIP
>>>>>>>>> don't matter...it's the W/L.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb
>>>>>>>> luck this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> - Scott Smith: scott.sm...@iphouse.com
>>>>>>>> MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> You know, several years ago, some of us had a disagreement about
>>>>>>> LaTroy Hawkins on the same set of data. He had a pretty
>>>>>>> incredible string of saves going, and, at the same time, a very
>>>>>>> scary WH/IP. I said I didn't care a whit about WHIP. I only
>>>>>>> cared about saves. Others (Alan, among them, I think) pointed out
>>>>>>> that with those numbers, it was only a matter of time before
>>>>>>> LaTroy exploded. I think he exploded while we were having the
>>>>>>> conversation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And Jones is loooong overdue for such an explosion.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I expect Jones explosion to take place in the 2nd half of
>>>>>> the season. Probably right around the time the Tigers
>>>>>> will be trying to make a run for the division.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Those terrible stats are going to come home to roost eventually.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> You still haven't answered what more you'd expect from him? Going
>>>>> off of ERA and WHIP alone, sure, his stats aren't padded enough to
>>>>> get anybody's attention in Minnesota, but he still has 16 out of 17
>>>>> saves.
>>>>
>>>> Only 17 save opportunities is sort of an odd stat. He IS
>>>> 4-0...leading me to think he may have entered a lot of tie
>>>> games...clearly he's not being used as exclusively in save
>>>> situations. I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5 inherited
>>>> runners to score as opposed to Pap's 14.
>>>
>>>
>>> Well, Jones has had half the save opportunities as Pap.
>>
>> Well...yeah...that was my point. Why was that? Does another pitcher on
>> the staff share the closing duties? Or does he fill that illusory role of
>> "ace reliever"?
>
>
>I really have no idea. Maybe the Tigers only put him in against teaams they
>think they can beat and/or when the Tigers are up by at least two. I really
>haven't been a very big fan of his (he makes games waaaaaay to interesting
>for my liking), but 16 out of 17 is pretty damn good.


Add another blown save to Jones record for the season, courtesy of the
Twins. ;-)





- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

Keith Willoughby wrote:
> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> writes:
>
>> For those who claim the closer job is over-rated...Oki has 1 save and
>> 6 blown...Delcarmen is 0 for 2...Hansen 1 for 3...Lopez 0 for
>> 1...Timlin is 1 for 1.
>
> The only interesting numbers there are the blown saves. Setup men
> get a lot of chances to blow saves, but very few to complete them.

Good point.

"S. Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
news:0muc749eec2jronn6rf7o71vuf9dofenfm@4ax.com...

>>I really have no idea. Maybe the Tigers only put him in against teaams
>>they
>>think they can beat and/or when the Tigers are up by at least two. I
>>really
>>haven't been a very big fan of his (he makes games waaaaaay to interesting
>>for my liking), but 16 out of 17 is pretty damn good.
>
>
> Add another blown save to Jones record for the season, courtesy of the
> Twins. ;-)


Wow...16 out of 18...yeah, get rid of Jones for that.

> On Jul 10, 4:32 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
.
> > "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> > Add another blown save to Jones record for the season, courtesy
of the
> > Twins.   ;-)


> Wow...16 out of 18...yeah, get rid of Jones for that.

The point is that Jones has an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.58. That's
playing with fire and it will catch up to him.

He had 6 blown saves last year (44 chances) and 6 in 2006 (43
chances), an 86.2% save rate.

BLOWN SAVES

2007 2006 %
Jenks 6 out of 46 4 out of 45 89.0%
Borowski 7 out of 52 7 out of 43 (but he got W's in 2 of them)
85.2%
Nathan 4 out of 41 2 out of 38 (one was a W) 92.4%
Papelbon 2 out of 39 5 out of 40 91.1%

In short, Todd Jones is a liability as a closer. I would guess he'll
end up with 7 blown saves in 40 chances this year.

"powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
news:3f8de9c2-2edb-43f1-a7e3-483c997d86db@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
> On Jul 10, 4:32 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
..
> > "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> > Add another blown save to Jones record for the season, courtesy
of the
> > Twins. ;-)


> Wow...16 out of 18...yeah, get rid of Jones for that.

The point is that Jones has an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.58. That's
playing with fire and it will catch up to him.

-----------
Eventually it will...I agree. But so far this season, he's been winning
ball games rather than blowing them.
-----------


He had 6 blown saves last year (44 chances) and 6 in 2006 (43
chances), an 86.2% save rate.

BLOWN SAVES

2007 2006 %
Jenks 6 out of 46 4 out of 45 89.0%
Borowski 7 out of 52 7 out of 43 (but he got W's in 2 of them)
85.2%
Nathan 4 out of 41 2 out of 38 (one was a W) 92.4%
Papelbon 2 out of 39 5 out of 40 91.1%

In short, Todd Jones is a liability as a closer. I would guess he'll
end up with 7 blown saves in 40 chances this year.


-----------
Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%? He's still in the ballpark with the
best...so far.
-----------

"Hosmerica" <BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote in message
news:lMmdndGVVL7dAevVnZ2dnUVZ_oWdnZ2d@comcast.com...
>
> "powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
> news:3f8de9c2-2edb-43f1-a7e3-483c997d86db@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
>> On Jul 10, 4:32 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
> .
>> > "S. Smith" <scott.sm...@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> > > Add another blown save to Jones record for the season, courtesy
> of the
>> > Twins. ;-)
>
>
>> Wow...16 out of 18...yeah, get rid of Jones for that.
>
> The point is that Jones has an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.58. That's
> playing with fire and it will catch up to him.
>
> -----------
> Eventually it will...I agree. But so far this season, he's been winning
> ball games rather than blowing them.
> -----------
>
>
> He had 6 blown saves last year (44 chances) and 6 in 2006 (43
> chances), an 86.2% save rate.
>
> BLOWN SAVES
>
> 2007 2006 %
> Jenks 6 out of 46 4 out of 45 89.0%
> Borowski 7 out of 52 7 out of 43 (but he got W's in 2 of them)
> 85.2%
> Nathan 4 out of 41 2 out of 38 (one was a W) 92.4%
> Papelbon 2 out of 39 5 out of 40 91.1%
>
> In short, Todd Jones is a liability as a closer. I would guess he'll
> end up with 7 blown saves in 40 chances this year.
>
>
> -----------
> Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%? He's still in the ballpark with the
> best...so far.
> -----------

It all comes back to what the pitcher's job really is (preventing runs or
winning games -- which is at least partly a semantic argument) and whether a
guy like Jones is an anomaly who apparently host a lot more baserunners
while still getting the job done.

I suspect that at some point his peripherals will come back to haunt him and
like Borowski he will find himself out of a job. Of course I've been saying
that for years and he's done well enough for at least 3 seasons.

The AL Central had three guys cut from his cloth -- lots of baserunners,
high ERA, lots of saves: Wickman, Borowski, and Jones. Wickman and Borowski
are both gone... Jones is the only one left standing...

brink

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:33:20 -0400, "Hosmerica" <BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote:

>"powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
>
>He had 6 blown saves last year (44 chances) and 6 in 2006 (43
>chances), an 86.2% save rate.
>
>BLOWN SAVES
>
> 2007 2006 %
>Jenks 6 out of 46 4 out of 45 89.0%
>Borowski 7 out of 52 7 out of 43 (but he got W's in 2 of them)
>85.2%
>Nathan 4 out of 41 2 out of 38 (one was a W) 92.4%
>Papelbon 2 out of 39 5 out of 40 91.1%
>
>In short, Todd Jones is a liability as a closer. I would guess he'll
>end up with 7 blown saves in 40 chances this year.
>
>
>-----------
>Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%? He's still in the ballpark with the
>best...so far.
>-----------


Jones isn't even close to the best closers in the league with his
numbers....not even close.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

"Scott Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
news:hc8d745bs4t7c2c1c36580ca7d1b6s6ksi@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:33:20 -0400, "Hosmerica"
> <BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>
>>"powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
>>
>>He had 6 blown saves last year (44 chances) and 6 in 2006 (43
>>chances), an 86.2% save rate.
>>
>>BLOWN SAVES
>>
>> 2007 2006 %
>>Jenks 6 out of 46 4 out of 45 89.0%
>>Borowski 7 out of 52 7 out of 43 (but he got W's in 2 of them)
>>85.2%
>>Nathan 4 out of 41 2 out of 38 (one was a W) 92.4%
>>Papelbon 2 out of 39 5 out of 40 91.1%
>>
>>In short, Todd Jones is a liability as a closer. I would guess he'll
>>end up with 7 blown saves in 40 chances this year.
>>
>>
>>-----------
>>Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%? He's still in the ballpark with the
>>best...so far.
>>-----------
>
>
> Jones isn't even close to the best closers in the league with his
> numbers....not even close.


Jenks 89.0%
Borowski 85.2%
Nathan 92.4%
Papelbon 91.1%
Jones 88.8%

Seems close to me.

"brink" <brinknospam@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:6dnld7F3gv1rU1@mid.individual.net...

>> -----------
>> Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%? He's still in the ballpark with
>> the best...so far.
>> -----------
>
> It all comes back to what the pitcher's job really is (preventing runs or
> winning games -- which is at least partly a semantic argument) and whether
> a guy like Jones is an anomaly who apparently host a lot more baserunners
> while still getting the job done.
>
> I suspect that at some point his peripherals will come back to haunt him
> and like Borowski he will find himself out of a job. Of course I've been
> saying that for years and he's done well enough for at least 3 seasons.
>
> The AL Central had three guys cut from his cloth -- lots of baserunners,
> high ERA, lots of saves: Wickman, Borowski, and Jones. Wickman and
> Borowski are both gone... Jones is the only one left standing...


Don't get me wrong on Jones, really I'm not defending him because I like
him. I'm probably more pissed becuase I hate Jones and he's doing better
than what I expected out of him. For anyone to say he's shit is wrong with
how he's playing so far this season. If he blows up later in the
season...eh *shrug*. I think I'd prefer Fossom over Jones, but for whatever
reason the Tigers like Jones better. I think he's washed up too and waiting
to blow up as well, but 16 out of 18 isn't bad.

>On Jul 10, 6:33 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
> -----------
> Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%?

Yes, but I was going by the stats from 2006-2007. If we include from
2006 up to so far in 2008:

2006-2008

Jones 86.6%
Jenks 88.4%
Borowski 82.9% (released by Indians)
Nathan 92.5%
Papelbon 90.8%


>  He's still in the ballpark with the best...so far.
> -----------

Not really. 2006-2008 Save Opportunity Percent

Rivera 92.6 %
Nathan 92.5%
Papelbon 90.8%
K-Rod 90.3%
Saito 89.9 %
Jenks 88.4%

"powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
news:084d51a8-d38a-4959-8154-f195bb45cf9c@l64g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
>On Jul 10, 6:33 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
> -----------
> Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%?

Yes, but I was going by the stats from 2006-2007. If we include from
2006 up to so far in 2008:

2006-2008

Jones 86.6%
Jenks 88.4%
Borowski 82.9% (released by Indians)
Nathan 92.5%
Papelbon 90.8%


> He's still in the ballpark with the best...so far.
> -----------

Not really. 2006-2008 Save Opportunity Percent

Rivera 92.6 %
Nathan 92.5%
Papelbon 90.8%
K-Rod 90.3%
Saito 89.9 %
Jenks 88.4%


You guys are killing me...88.8% is NOWHERE NEAR any of those numbers.
Gotcha.

> On Jul 10, 7:26 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
> > "powrwrap" <powrw...@aol.com> wrote in message
>
> Not really. 2006-2008 Save Opportunity Percent
>
> Rivera      92.6 %
> Nathan     92.5%
> Papelbon 90.8%
> K-Rod      90.3%
> Saito       89.9 %
> Jenks      88.4%
>
> You guys are killing me...88.8% is NOWHERE NEAR any of those numbers.
> Gotcha.

Realize the endpoints. Jones is 86.6% for 2006 through 2008. I can run
the numbers for you so far in 2008 if you like, and I'll include ERA
and WHIP:

2008 Save Opportunity Percent, ERA, WHIP

Rivera 100.0%, 1.06, 0.64
Nathan 92.6%, 1.23, 0.90
K-Rod 92.1%, 2.54, 1.23
Jones 88.8%, 5.09, 1.58
Papelbon 87.1%, 2.27, 0.91
Jenks 85.7%, 1.95, 1.10
Saito 85.0%, 2.33, 1.16

So yeah, so far this year, Jones is one of the best closers as far as
percent of games saved per opportunity. But look at how lucky he's
been. Compare his ERA and WHIP numbers with the elite closers. Jones
does allow runners to get on base. He does give up runs. I don't have
time to do the research--perhaps you can tell me from watching the
games--but I bet Jones has come into a lot of games with a 3 run lead
and ended up saving them with a 2 or 1 run margin.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 17:41:05 -0700 (PDT), powrwrap <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote:


>So yeah, so far this year, Jones is one of the best closers as far as
>percent of games saved per opportunity. But look at how lucky he's
>been.

My point exactly. He has been VERY damn lucky so far this
season, considering his terrible ERA and WHIP, and that
kind of luck can't last...and it won't.

Let's revisit his numbers at the end of the season for the
true tale of Mr. Jones.



- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

"Hosmerica" <BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> wrote in message
news:LfydnWkgE8FUNevVnZ2dnUVZ_sDinZ2d@comcast.com...
>
> "powrwrap" <powrwrap@aol.com> wrote in message
> news:084d51a8-d38a-4959-8154-f195bb45cf9c@l64g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
>>On Jul 10, 6:33 pm, "Hosmerica" <BigOneCom...@IveGotGas.com> wrote:
>> -----------
>> Perhaps, but isn't 16 of 18 an 88.8%?
>
> Yes, but I was going by the stats from 2006-2007. If we include from
> 2006 up to so far in 2008:
>
> 2006-2008
>
> Jones 86.6%
> Jenks 88.4%
> Borowski 82.9% (released by Indians)
> Nathan 92.5%
> Papelbon 90.8%
>
>
>> He's still in the ballpark with the best...so far.
>> -----------
>
> Not really. 2006-2008 Save Opportunity Percent
>
> Rivera 92.6 %
> Nathan 92.5%
> Papelbon 90.8%
> K-Rod 90.3%
> Saito 89.9 %
> Jenks 88.4%
>
>
> You guys are killing me...88.8% is NOWHERE NEAR any of those numbers.
> Gotcha.

I think he's going by the last 3 seasons' worth of numbers, not just half a
season.

He's not a disaster by any means but he's not a strength either. Every team
has its soft spots, he's one of the Tigers'... for the Twins it's power,
for the Yankees it's starting, for the Red Sox it's middle relief...

A six percent difference isn't huge but it's a significant number of games
over that span, including some very tight races.

brink

On 2008-07-10 14:04:02 -0500, "Hosmerica" <BigOneComing@IveGotGas.com> said:

>> I'll say this for him...he has only allowed 5 inherited runners to
>> score as opposed to Pap's 14.
>
> Well, Jones has had half the save opportunities as Pap.

But nearly as many IP.

--

On Jul 10, 7:41 pm, powrwrap <powrw...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> 2008 Save Opportunity Percent, ERA, WHIP
>
> Rivera   100.0%,  1.06,  0.64
> Nathan   92.6%,  1.23,  0.90
> K-Rod    92.1%,   2.54,  1.23
> Jones     88.8%,   5.09,  1.58
> Papelbon 87.1%,  2.27,  0.91
> Jenks     85.7%,  1.95,  1.10
> Saito     85.0%,   2.33,  1.16

Sings: One of these kids is not like the others, one of these kids
just isn't the same.

Matt

S. Smith wrote:

>
> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>

Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing runs
to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the glory.


--
"I think you should strangle it quickly before it starts trying to make
friends with us."

Pearly Soames wrote:
> S. Smith wrote:
>
>>
>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>
>
> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
> Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
> Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing runs
> to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the glory.

Well to be fair...and I don't see nearly enough of Jones to know if this is
true...but if a reliever throws strikes, he'll get hit sometimes, where
others might give up walks. As long as he gets them out while not giving up
the lead...he has done his job.

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:10:48 -0400, Pearly Soames
<tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote:

>S. Smith wrote:
>
>>
>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>
>
>Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
>Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
>Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing runs
>to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the glory.


Exactly.





- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

On Jul 12, 11:24 am, "Dano" <janeandd...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> Well to be fair...and I don't see nearly enough of Jones to know if this is
> true...but if a reliever throws strikes, he'll get hit sometimes, where
> others might give up walks.  As long as he gets them out while not giving up
> the lead...he has done his job.

But if you're consistently giving up baserunners and earned runs,
which Jones is, it indicates that you're not dominating, and that is
likely to catch up with you eventually.

Matt

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:24:12 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
wrote:

>Pearly Soames wrote:
>> S. Smith wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>
>>
>> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
>> Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
>> Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing runs
>> to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the glory.
>
>Well to be fair...and I don't see nearly enough of Jones to know if this is
>true...but if a reliever throws strikes, he'll get hit sometimes, where
>others might give up walks. As long as he gets them out while not giving up
>the lead...he has done his job.


Well, Jones K/BB ratio is .92, so he's not throwing a lot
of strikes. It's usually a ball or a hit.




- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

S. Smith wrote:
> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:10:48 -0400, Pearly Soames
> <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote:
>
>> S. Smith wrote:
>>
>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>
>> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
>> Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
>> Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing runs
>> to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the glory.
>
>
> Exactly.
>

It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but the
money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has done well is
to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage bullpen guy and
the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go beofre he gets
expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better relievers. Soem of the
closers he has let go have gone on to be great closers for other teams,
albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is willing to lose the
occasional game that is blown by his less effective but lower-paid
closer, knowing that he's making up for it by winning more games in the
7th and 8th innings. It's not quite the relief ace model, but a
stealthy version of it that allows high to keep his payroll lower by not
giving due praise to the true heroes of the bullpen.

--
"I think you should strangle it quickly before it starts trying to make
friends with us."

Pearly Soames wrote:
> S. Smith wrote:
>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:10:48 -0400, Pearly Soames
>> <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote:
>>
>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>
>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>
>>> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
>>> Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
>>> Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing
>>> runs to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the
>>> glory.
>>
>>
>> Exactly.
>>
>
> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but the
> money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has done well
> is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage bullpen guy
> and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go beofre he gets
> expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better relievers. Soem of the
> closers he has let go have gone on to be great closers for other
> teams, albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is willing to
> lose the occasional game that is blown by his less effective but
> lower-paid closer, knowing that he's making up for it by winning more
> games in the 7th and 8th innings. It's not quite the relief ace
> model, but a stealthy version of it that allows high to keep his
> payroll lower by not giving due praise to the true heroes of the
> bullpen.

I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in MLB
today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.

Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You know
he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to other veteran
closers if you wish to make that claim.

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
wrote:

>Pearly Soames wrote:
>> S. Smith wrote:
>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:10:48 -0400, Pearly Soames
>>> <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb luck
>>>>> this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>
>>>> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others, like
>>>> Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage situations.
>>>> Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on and allowing
>>>> runs to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he still gets the
>>>> glory.
>>>
>>>
>>> Exactly.
>>>
>>
>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but the
>> money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has done well
>> is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage bullpen guy
>> and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go beofre he gets
>> expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better relievers. Soem of the
>> closers he has let go have gone on to be great closers for other
>> teams, albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is willing to
>> lose the occasional game that is blown by his less effective but
>> lower-paid closer, knowing that he's making up for it by winning more
>> games in the 7th and 8th innings. It's not quite the relief ace
>> model, but a stealthy version of it that allows high to keep his
>> payroll lower by not giving due praise to the true heroes of the
>> bullpen.
>
>I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in MLB
>today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>
>Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You know
>he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to other veteran
>closers if you wish to make that claim.

Jones is getting $7 million this season.

In contrast, Verlander is getting $1.1 million and Zumaya $420k.

I would not be surprised at all to see Leyland go with Zumaya as
the Tigers closer by the end of the season, after Jones horrible
pitching finally comes home to roost in the second half of this
season.





- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

S. Smith wrote:
> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:10:48 -0400, Pearly Soames
>>>> <tom.champagne@charter.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> The ERA and WHIP indicate that Jones is surviving more on dumb
>>>>>> luck this season, rather than on actual skill and hard work.
>>>>>>
>>>>> Well, lucky in that he gets the save situations, while others,
>>>>> like Dolsi and, more recently, Zumaya, get the high-leverage
>>>>> situations. Jones has pitched mostly when putting baserunners on
>>>>> and allowing runs to score hasn't hurt the team so badly, but he
>>>>> still gets the glory.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Exactly.
>>>>
>>>
>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but
>>> the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has
>>> done well is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage
>>> bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go
>>> beofre he gets expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better relievers.
>>> Soem of the closers he has let go have gone on to be great closers
>>> for other teams, albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is
>>> willing to lose the occasional game that is blown by his less
>>> effective but lower-paid closer, knowing that he's making up for it
>>> by winning more games in the 7th and 8th innings. It's not quite
>>> the relief ace model, but a stealthy version of it that allows high
>>> to keep his payroll lower by not giving due praise to the true
>>> heroes of the bullpen.
>>
>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in
>> MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>
>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's.
>> You know he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to
>> other veteran closers if you wish to make that claim.
>
> Jones is getting $7 million this season.
>
> In contrast, Verlander is getting $1.1 million and Zumaya $420k.
>
> I would not be surprised at all to see Leyland go with Zumaya as
> the Tigers closer by the end of the season, after Jones horrible
> pitching finally comes home to roost in the second half of this
> season.
>
>
OK, great...I was wrong on Jones' salary. You are doing just what I figured
someone would do...compare apples to oranges. You compare two young guys
who are paid less because their crack at free agency is still to come.
Zumaya has 2 years experience (126 total big league innings), while
Verlander is in his third full season (with a 4.24 ERA I might add).
Papelbon is a bargain at 775K too. Has nothing to do with the discussion.

Zumaya may or may not become their closer. That still won't have a thing to
do with his rate of pay...any more than Mike Timlin earning well over three
times what Papelbon does.

S. Smith wrote:
> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>
>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but the
>>> money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has done well
>>> is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage bullpen guy
>>> and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go beofre he gets
>>> expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better relievers. Soem of the
>>> closers he has let go have gone on to be great closers for other
>>> teams, albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is willing to
>>> lose the occasional game that is blown by his less effective but
>>> lower-paid closer, knowing that he's making up for it by winning more
>>> games in the 7th and 8th innings. It's not quite the relief ace
>>> model, but a stealthy version of it that allows high to keep his
>>> payroll lower by not giving due praise to the true heroes of the
>>> bullpen.
>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in MLB
>> today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>

Piggybacked:

The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that $5MM is
about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a team with a
relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few million dollars on
one player is a big deal. Sticking with a decent, relatively
inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using good veteran relievers in
other high-leverage situations can keep the team competitive while
resulting in big savings for the budget.

>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You know
>> he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to other veteran
>> closers if you wish to make that claim.
>

Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go before
they get expensive, I was talking about closers like Papelbon, good
closers who haven't reached their arbitration years yet. If Papelbon
were on the As, he'd probably be planing to trade him before he hit
arbitration, or before his arbitration salary got too expensive. He'd
probably get good value for a closer who would still be under the team's
control for up to another three years, and slot in another decent,
inexpensive, young reliever as a closer.

--
"I think you should strangle it quickly before it starts trying to make
friends with us."

Pearly Soames wrote:
> S. Smith wrote:
>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>>
>>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but
>>>> the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has
>>>> done well is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage
>>>> bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go
>>>> beofre he gets expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better
>>>> relievers. Soem of the closers he has let go have gone on to be
>>>> great closers for other teams, albeit at a much higher cost. Meanwhile,
>>>> Beane is willing to lose the occasional game that is
>>>> blown by his less effective but lower-paid closer, knowing that
>>>> he's making up for it by winning more games in the 7th and 8th
>>>> innings. It's not quite the relief ace model, but a stealthy
>>>> version of it that allows high to keep his payroll lower by not
>>>> giving due praise to the true heroes of the bullpen.
>>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in
>>> MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>>
>
> Piggybacked:
>
> The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that $5MM is
> about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a team with a
> relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few million dollars on
> one player is a big deal. Sticking with a decent, relatively
> inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using good veteran relievers
> in other high-leverage situations can keep the team competitive while
> resulting in big savings for the budget.
>

Yeah...sure. Not arguing against that...at all. Just against the idea that
Jones is being extravagently overpaid really.

>>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You
>>> know he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to
>>> other veteran closers if you wish to make that claim.
>>
>
> Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
> implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go
> before they get expensive, I was talking about closers like Papelbon,
> good closers who haven't reached their arbitration years yet. If
> Papelbon were on the As, he'd probably be planing to trade him before
> he hit arbitration, or before his arbitration salary got too
> expensive. He'd probably get good value for a closer who would still
> be under the team's control for up to another three years, and slot
> in another decent, inexpensive, young reliever as a closer.

Well I never said that you claimed what I referred to...that was Scott
Smith...who compared Jones' salary to those of Zumaya and Verlander...with
two and three years experience. Did you miss a post?

"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:Z4ydnYPgLogHj-TVnZ2dnUVZ_oninZ2d@comcast.com...
> Pearly Soames wrote:
>> S. Smith wrote:
>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but
>>>>> the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has
>>>>> done well is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage
>>>>> bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go
>>>>> beofre he gets expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better
>>>>> relievers. Soem of the closers he has let go have gone on to be
>>>>> great closers for other teams, albeit at a much higher cost.
>>>>> Meanwhile, Beane is willing to lose the occasional game that is
>>>>> blown by his less effective but lower-paid closer, knowing that
>>>>> he's making up for it by winning more games in the 7th and 8th
>>>>> innings. It's not quite the relief ace model, but a stealthy
>>>>> version of it that allows high to keep his payroll lower by not
>>>>> giving due praise to the true heroes of the bullpen.
>>>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in
>>>> MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>>>
>>
>> Piggybacked:
>>
>> The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that $5MM is
>> about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a team with a
>> relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few million dollars on
>> one player is a big deal. Sticking with a decent, relatively
>> inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using good veteran relievers
>> in other high-leverage situations can keep the team competitive while
>> resulting in big savings for the budget.
>>
>
> Yeah...sure. Not arguing against that...at all. Just against the idea
> that Jones is being extravagently overpaid really.
>
>>>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You
>>>> know he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to
>>>> other veteran closers if you wish to make that claim.
>>>
>>
>> Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
>> implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go
>> before they get expensive, I was talking about closers like Papelbon,
>> good closers who haven't reached their arbitration years yet. If
>> Papelbon were on the As, he'd probably be planing to trade him before
>> he hit arbitration, or before his arbitration salary got too
>> expensive. He'd probably get good value for a closer who would still
>> be under the team's control for up to another three years, and slot
>> in another decent, inexpensive, young reliever as a closer.
>
> Well I never said that you claimed what I referred to...that was Scott
> Smith...who compared Jones' salary to those of Zumaya and Verlander...with
> two and three years experience. Did you miss a post?

Scott is indeed comparing apples to oranges... not fair to compare guys
like Jones who have hit the open market to guys like Zumaya and Papelbon who
are still in their years of serfdom.

But I think the point holds that there are lots of middle innings guys with
much better peripherals than Jones -- they just don't get the saves, which
obviously greatly inflates a player's worth in most GMs' eyes.

I can think of dozens of open market guys who make FAR less than Jones and
who I'd probably rather have closing games for my team than Jones.

brink

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:24:49 -0700, "brink" <brinknospam@hotmail.com> wrote:

>
>"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>news:Z4ydnYPgLogHj-TVnZ2dnUVZ_oninZ2d@comcast.com...
>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but
>>>>>> the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has
>>>>>> done well is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage
>>>>>> bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go
>>>>>> beofre he gets expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better
>>>>>> relievers. Soem of the closers he has let go have gone on to be
>>>>>> great closers for other teams, albeit at a much higher cost.
>>>>>> Meanwhile, Beane is willing to lose the occasional game that is
>>>>>> blown by his less effective but lower-paid closer, knowing that
>>>>>> he's making up for it by winning more games in the 7th and 8th
>>>>>> innings. It's not quite the relief ace model, but a stealthy
>>>>>> version of it that allows high to keep his payroll lower by not
>>>>>> giving due praise to the true heroes of the bullpen.
>>>>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in
>>>>> MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>>>>
>>>
>>> Piggybacked:
>>>
>>> The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that $5MM is
>>> about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a team with a
>>> relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few million dollars on
>>> one player is a big deal. Sticking with a decent, relatively
>>> inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using good veteran relievers
>>> in other high-leverage situations can keep the team competitive while
>>> resulting in big savings for the budget.
>>>
>>
>> Yeah...sure. Not arguing against that...at all. Just against the idea
>> that Jones is being extravagently overpaid really.
>>
>>>>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's. You
>>>>> know he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to
>>>>> other veteran closers if you wish to make that claim.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
>>> implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go
>>> before they get expensive, I was talking about closers like Papelbon,
>>> good closers who haven't reached their arbitration years yet. If
>>> Papelbon were on the As, he'd probably be planing to trade him before
>>> he hit arbitration, or before his arbitration salary got too
>>> expensive. He'd probably get good value for a closer who would still
>>> be under the team's control for up to another three years, and slot
>>> in another decent, inexpensive, young reliever as a closer.
>>
>> Well I never said that you claimed what I referred to...that was Scott
>> Smith...who compared Jones' salary to those of Zumaya and Verlander...with
>> two and three years experience. Did you miss a post?
>
>Scott is indeed comparing apples to oranges... not fair to compare guys
>like Jones who have hit the open market to guys like Zumaya and Papelbon who
>are still in their years of serfdom.

Oh, I understand WHY it is that Jones gets the salary he does, and
Verlander and Zumaya get what they are paid. I just think a little
perspective is needed for Detroit fans. Their two best pitchers
don't even come close to adding up to what Jones is paid, and yet
they constantly give Jones a pass on his horrible pitcher stats.

Detroit fans also don't seem to care about the salaries the various
Tigers players get. But as a baseball fan that does understand
salaries, and expectations, I would be very disappointed if my
favorite team had to rely on Jones as a closer...especially when
it came down to single run save situations, which Jones has
avoided most of this season, so far just, by sheer luck.

Like I've said several times this season....Jones luck won't last.

>But I think the point holds that there are lots of middle innings guys with
>much better peripherals than Jones -- they just don't get the saves, which
>obviously greatly inflates a player's worth in most GMs' eyes.
>
>I can think of dozens of open market guys who make FAR less than Jones and
>who I'd probably rather have closing games for my team than Jones.

Very true.



- Scott Smith: scott.smith@iphouse.com
MySpace: http://www.myspace.com/choppersmith

"Scott Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
news:9u3j741vae47brkbo154frtv93bmcn1teq@4ax.com...
> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:24:49 -0700, "brink" <brinknospam@hotmail.com>
wrote:
>
> >
> >"Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> >news:Z4ydnYPgLogHj-TVnZ2dnUVZ_oninZ2d@comcast.com...
> >> Pearly Soames wrote:
> >>> S. Smith wrote:
> >>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com>
> >>>> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory, but
> >>>>>> the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy Beane has
> >>>>>> done well is to recognize the relative values of the high-leverage
> >>>>>> bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to let the closer go
> >>>>>> beofre he gets expensive, keeping the lower-paid, better
> >>>>>> relievers. Soem of the closers he has let go have gone on to be
> >>>>>> great closers for other teams, albeit at a much higher cost.
> >>>>>> Meanwhile, Beane is willing to lose the occasional game that is
> >>>>>> blown by his less effective but lower-paid closer, knowing that
> >>>>>> he's making up for it by winning more games in the 7th and 8th
> >>>>>> innings. It's not quite the relief ace model, but a stealthy
> >>>>>> version of it that allows high to keep his payroll lower by not
> >>>>>> giving due praise to the true heroes of the bullpen.
> >>>>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money in
> >>>>> MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
> >>>>>
> >>>
> >>> Piggybacked:
> >>>
> >>> The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that $5MM is
> >>> about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a team with a
> >>> relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few million dollars on
> >>> one player is a big deal. Sticking with a decent, relatively
> >>> inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using good veteran relievers
> >>> in other high-leverage situations can keep the team competitive while
> >>> resulting in big savings for the budget.
> >>>
> >>
> >> Yeah...sure. Not arguing against that...at all. Just against the idea
> >> that Jones is being extravagently overpaid really.
> >>
> >>>>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to Papelbon's.
You
> >>>>> know he will get far more when his turn comes. Compare him to
> >>>>> other veteran closers if you wish to make that claim.
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
> >>> implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go
> >>> before they get expensive, I was talking about closers like Papelbon,
> >>> good closers who haven't reached their arbitration years yet. If
> >>> Papelbon were on the As, he'd probably be planing to trade him before
> >>> he hit arbitration, or before his arbitration salary got too
> >>> expensive. He'd probably get good value for a closer who would still
> >>> be under the team's control for up to another three years, and slot
> >>> in another decent, inexpensive, young reliever as a closer.
> >>
> >> Well I never said that you claimed what I referred to...that was Scott
> >> Smith...who compared Jones' salary to those of Zumaya and
Verlander...with
> >> two and three years experience. Did you miss a post?
> >
> >Scott is indeed comparing apples to oranges... not fair to compare guys
> >like Jones who have hit the open market to guys like Zumaya and Papelbon
who
> >are still in their years of serfdom.
>
> Oh, I understand WHY it is that Jones gets the salary he does, and
> Verlander and Zumaya get what they are paid. I just think a little
> perspective is needed for Detroit fans. Their two best pitchers
> don't even come close to adding up to what Jones is paid, and yet
> they constantly give Jones a pass on his horrible pitcher stats.
>

Perspective. Yes. Here is a little. Zumaya has pitched 10 innings this
year. TEN. 1 save. Verlander (really a starter) has a 4.24 ERA and I
really don't know why he is even part of this discussion. But then...not
being a Tigers fan...I'm not that up to speed on their details.

Then you have the old warhorse Jones. Yeah...he may be the epitome of
mediocrity to you. Hell...I'm no big fan myself. But here's a guy with 15
years...over 1,000 innings in 975 games with a lifetime ERA just under 4.
Nothing spectacular for sure. Just a guy doing a job. That job is to save
games. He has done that 16 times and blown TWO. He also has won 4 against
no losses. This game is about wins and losses...not gaudy statistics. I'm
an outsider, but I think the Tigers have worse worries.

> Detroit fans also don't seem to care about the salaries the various
> Tigers players get. But as a baseball fan that does understand
> salaries, and expectations, I would be very disappointed if my
> favorite team had to rely on Jones as a closer...especially when
> it came down to single run save situations, which Jones has
> avoided most of this season, so far just, by sheer luck.
>

I don't believe THAT strongly in just "luck". But that's just me.

> Like I've said several times this season....Jones luck won't last.
>

Maybe. We'll see.

> >But I think the point holds that there are lots of middle innings guys
with
> >much better peripherals than Jones -- they just don't get the saves,
which
> >obviously greatly inflates a player's worth in most GMs' eyes.
> >
> >I can think of dozens of open market guys who make FAR less than Jones
and
> >who I'd probably rather have closing games for my team than Jones.
>
> Very true.
>

Not to be glib about it but...get one. Everybody in the game knows the day
will come that someone better will come along and take their job. That's
inevitable. Maybe it will be Zumaya. Maybe not. I really don't care.
Jones has done his job to this point.

Dano wrote:
> "Scott Smith" <scott.smith@iphouse.com> wrote in message
> news:9u3j741vae47brkbo154frtv93bmcn1teq@4ax.com...
>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:24:49 -0700, "brink"
>> <brinknospam@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> "Dano" <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>>> news:Z4ydnYPgLogHj-TVnZ2dnUVZ_oninZ2d@comcast.com...
>>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>> S. Smith wrote:
>>>>>> On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:40:50 -0400, "Dano"
>>>>>> <janeanddano@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Pearly Soames wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> It's just a shame that guys like Jones get not only the glory,
>>>>>>>> but the money as well. One thing that I think that Billy
>>>>>>>> Beane has done well is to recognize the relative values of the
>>>>>>>> high-leverage bullpen guy and the closer, and to be willing to
>>>>>>>> let the closer go beofre he gets expensive, keeping the
>>>>>>>> lower-paid, better relievers. Soem of the closers he has let
>>>>>>>> go have gone on to be great closers for other teams, albeit at
>>>>>>>> a much higher cost. Meanwhile, Beane is willing to lose the
>>>>>>>> occasional game that is blown by his less effective but
>>>>>>>> lower-paid closer, knowing that he's making up for it by
>>>>>>>> winning more games in the 7th and 8th innings. It's not quite
>>>>>>>> the relief ace model, but a stealthy version of it that allows
>>>>>>>> high to keep his payroll lower by not giving due praise to the
>>>>>>>> true heroes of the bullpen.
>>>>>>> I don't know if you realize...but 5 mil is pretty average money
>>>>>>> in MLB today...hardly considered a high salary I would think.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Piggybacked:
>>>>>
>>>>> The average MLB salary is just over $3MM, so you're right that
>>>>> $5MM is about average, but I don't know what your point is. To a
>>>>> team with a relatively small budget, like the As, saving a few
>>>>> million dollars on one player is a big deal. Sticking with a
>>>>> decent, relatively inexpensive, pre-arbitration closer, and using
>>>>> good veteran relievers in other high-leverage situations can keep
>>>>> the team competitive while resulting in big savings for the
>>>>> budget.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Yeah...sure. Not arguing against that...at all. Just against the
>>>> idea that Jones is being extravagently overpaid really.
>>>>
>>>>>>> Please don't be silly enough to compare his salary to
>>>>>>> Papelbon's. You know he will get far more when his turn comes.
>>>>>>> Compare him to other veteran closers if you wish to make that
>>>>>>> claim.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Well, I wasn't that silly, and I didn't make whatever claim you're
>>>>> implying. When I wrote that Beane was willing to let closers go
>>>>> before they get expensive, I was talking about closers like
>>>>> Papelbon, good closers who haven't reached their arbitration
>>>>> years yet. If Papelbon were on the As, he'd probably be planing
>>>>> to trade him before he hit arbitration, or before his arbitration
>>>>> salary got too expensive. He'd probably get good value for a
>>>>> closer who would still be under the team's control for up to
>>>>> another three years, and slot in another decent, inexpensive,
>>>>> young reliever as a closer.
>>>>
>>>> Well I never said that you claimed what I referred to...that was
>>>> Scott Smith...who compared Jones' salary to those of Zumaya and
>>>> Verlander...with two and three years experience. Did you miss a
>>>> post?
>>>
>>> Scott is indeed comparing apples to oranges... not fair to compare
>>> guys like Jones who have hit the open market to guys like Zumaya
>>> and Papelbon who are still in their years of serfdom.
>>
>> Oh, I understand WHY it is that Jones gets the salary he does, and
>> Verlander and Zumaya get what they are paid. I just think a little
>> perspective is needed for Detroit fans. Their two best pitchers
>> don't even come close to adding up to what Jones is paid, and yet
>> they constantly give Jones a pass on his horrible pitcher stats.
>>
>
> Perspective. Yes. Here is a little. Zumaya has pitched 10 innings
> this year. TEN. 1 save. Verlander (really a starter) has a 4.24
> ERA and I really don't know why he is even part of this discussion.
> But then...not being a Tigers fan...I'm not that up to speed on their
> details.
>
> Then you have the old warhorse Jones. Yeah...he may be the epitome of
> mediocrity to you. Hell...I'm no big fan myself. But here's a guy
> with 15 years...over 1,000 innings in 975 games with a lifetime ERA
> just under 4. Nothing spectacular for sure. Just a guy doing a job.
> That job is to save games. He has done that 16 times and blown TWO.
> He also has won 4 against no losses. This game is about wins and
> losses...not gaudy statistics. I'm an outsider, but I think the
> Tigers have worse worries.
>
>> Detroit fans also don't seem to care about the salaries the various
>> Tigers players get. But as a baseball fan that does understand
>&