CCT: Baron Davis and the Warriors

Baron Davis and the Warriors: Looks like he'll play out his final year,
which really could be his final year

By Tim Kawakami
Monday, April 21st, 2008

It's not a showdown. Not a poker game.

It'll be a stalemate with almost no wiggle room. Which means Baron Davis and
Chris Mullin will take this negotiation all the way into next season and
beyond. because neither has any other viable choice.

Well, that's if the Warriors don't mind angering Davis a bit by declining
his open desire for a multi-year extension and that's assuming Davis will
not opt-out of the final year and $17.2M of his contract, which I am very
much assuming and have assumed for a year now.

I'm told and fully believe that the Warriors are OK with holding the line on
Baron's $$ this summer, even if that causes extreme Davis moping and raging
for months. all the way into next season, if that's what he prefers.

* The good logic: At 29, Baron either has it in him to play at a supreme
level-to lead the team to the playoffs, screw the Warriors' fiscal plans and
get a mega-deal (from somebody) next summer.

If that's the case: Warriors get another good season, they're happy. They
might lose him to free agency, at age 30-they're not broken up by that and
they can re-sign him next summer, too, possibly.

* Or, after all this wear and tear, Baron shows up next October and tries to
rev up a salary drive but simply doesn't have the burst any more.

Maybe he really is the slow-motion guard that everybody saw in the final 15
games or so of this season.

* Or Baron will pout and emotionally abandon the team, as he did in New
Orleans to force the trade to the Warriors in 2005 and which basically
torched his reputation around league circles forever.

That'd mess up the Warriors and Nellie's final run and that won't be pretty.
But it'd also destroy BD's chances of ever receiving big money again, and he's
a very smart guy-will he waste a shot at $60M just because he's mad?

No, he won't. And if he does, who'd want him?

Plus, back in New Orleans, Baron was 25, about to turn 26, in the prime of
his career and desperate for a life vest.

He had Mullin ready to rescue him-and he responded by saving Mullin's
executive career, of course.

That is not the case now. That incredible 2007 playoff series against Dallas
was not that long ago, yes. But when great point guards get close to 30,
sometimes the end of the greatness comes very swiftly-especially great point
guards that get hurt a lot and depend on explosiveness.

-If Davis has That Tremendous Salary-Drive Season, BD and Don Nelson can fly
together in their last contracted years to great things and both will become
a free agents next summer.

Baron will deserve huge money and he will get it.

The Warriors will be happy to bid high for both-and can bid higher than
anybody for Davis in particular. (Nellie might want to coach the Yakult
Swallows for $20M in 2009-2010 for all I know.)

-If BD doesn't have That Great Season. well, won't the Warriors be happy
they didn't hand him an extra $60M+ this summer?

And won't they be happy they were already preparing to turn the team over to
Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins-DEFINITE keepers, as Mullin said-Brandan Wright
and possibly several new players?

Yes, the Warriors would do that. They'd plan that. They'd be silly to be
planning anything else, actually. Baron has been incredible for them, but
that doesn't mean he'll be incredible in years 3 and 4 of a $77M total
compensation package through 2011-12. when Davis will turn 33.

Again, as has been typed often, here's why Baron almost certainly won't
opt-out:

-Due to cap rules and his risky age/injury and moodiness profile, Baron can't
get that $17.2M anywhere else unless he takes a long-term deal starting at
$5.5M or so and takes him up to $40M+.

-And Baron is not taking any deal that starts with him taking a $11M+ salary
paycut, even if it means landing back home in LA and guarantees more money
over the long haul.

-So Baron wants an extension before he opts-out to maintain the $17.2M and
to get a lot more after that.

-But the Warriors gain little by doing that-why pay Baron a year before they
have to. and at the very end of his peak?

Nope, the Warriors will buckle down and see how Baron absorbs it. Hey, he
might shock us all and opt-out in June-that'd make Mullin sweat a bit. If he
leaves for nothing, the Warriors go from No. 9 in the West probably to No.
13 in a hurry.

But if Baron wants to leave that badly, it does give the Warriors a lot more
money to spend this summer.

And if he stays, he'll be as motivated to play hard-and play defense, and be
focused-in 2008-2009 as he's ever been.

If he plays ferociously great to nail the Warriors. it doesn't matter to
them, as long as he does it.

The subject should have been SJMN (Kawakami blog).

--Robin